SIGA Technologies (SIGA Technologies) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1997. Start your Free Trial

What is SIGA Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SIGA Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

SIGA Technologies Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of SIGA Technologies's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

SIGA Technologies (SIGA Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » SIGA Technologies Inc (NAS:SIGA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

31 East 62nd Street, New York, NY, USA, 10065

Website

http://www.siga.com

SIGA Technologies Inc is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company focused on the health security market. The company's main product is TPOXX, an oral formulation antiviral drug for the treatment of human smallpox disease caused by the variola virus.

Executives

Evan A. Knisely	director	C/O SIGA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 31 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065
Jay Varma	director	C/O SIGA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 31 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065
Ford Harold Eugene Jr.	director	4921 WILLIAM ARNOLD ROAD, MEMPHIS TN 38117
James Antal	director	30952 STEEPLECHASE DRIVE, SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO CA 92675
Holly L. Phillips	director	C/O SIGA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 31 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065
Gary J. Nabel	director	C/O SIGA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 31 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065
Julian Nemirovsky	director	35 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065
Edward P. Taibi	director	35 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065
Jaymie A Durnan	director	C/O SIGA TECHNOLOGIES, INC.,, 31 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065
Gomez Phillip Louis Iii	officer: Chief Executive Officer	7220 VAN NESS COURT, MCLEAN VA 22101
Daniel J Luckshire	officer: Executive VP & CFO	C/O SIGA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 35 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065
Paul G Savas	director	35 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10021
Julie Kane	director	77 BEALE ST, P.O. BOX 770000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94177
Dennis E Hruby	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	SIGA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 420 LEXINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 601, NEW YORK NY 10170
Michael J Bayer	director	1100 N GLEBE ROAD, ARLINGTON VA 22201