What is SIGA Technologies Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, SIGA Technologies's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of SIGA Technologies's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic subindustry, SIGA Technologies's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
SIGA Technologies's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Drug Manufacturers Industry
For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, SIGA Technologies's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where SIGA Technologies's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
SIGA Technologies Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | -8.87 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.01% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
SIGA Technologies (SIGA Technologies) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
31 East 62nd Street, New York, NY, USA, 10065
SIGA Technologies Inc is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company focused on the health security market. The company's main product is TPOXX, an oral formulation antiviral drug for the treatment of human smallpox disease caused by the variola virus.
Executives
| Evan A. Knisely |
director |
C/O SIGA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 31 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065 |
| Jay Varma |
director |
C/O SIGA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 31 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065 |
| Ford Harold Eugene Jr. |
director |
4921 WILLIAM ARNOLD ROAD, MEMPHIS TN 38117 |
| James Antal |
director |
30952 STEEPLECHASE DRIVE, SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO CA 92675 |
| Holly L. Phillips |
director |
C/O SIGA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 31 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065 |
| Gary J. Nabel |
director |
C/O SIGA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 31 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065 |
| Julian Nemirovsky |
director |
35 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065 |
| Edward P. Taibi |
director |
35 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065 |
| Jaymie A Durnan |
director |
C/O SIGA TECHNOLOGIES, INC.,, 31 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065 |
| Gomez Phillip Louis Iii |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
7220 VAN NESS COURT, MCLEAN VA 22101 |
| Daniel J Luckshire |
officer: Executive VP & CFO |
C/O SIGA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 35 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065 |
| Paul G Savas |
director |
35 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10021 |
| Julie Kane |
director |
77 BEALE ST, P.O. BOX 770000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94177 |
| Dennis E Hruby |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
SIGA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 420 LEXINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 601, NEW YORK NY 10170 |
| Michael J Bayer |
director |
1100 N GLEBE ROAD, ARLINGTON VA 22201 |
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