What is SHF Holdings Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
SHF Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
SHF Holdings (SHF Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1526 Cole Boulevard, Suite 250, Golden, CO, USA, 80410
SHF Holdings Inc is a financial services provider to cannabis-related businesses. It offers reliable access to banking solutions for cannabis, hemp, CBD, and ancillary operators, making communities safer, driving growth in local economies, and fostering long-term partnerships. The group, through its financial institution clients, implements accountability, transparency, monitoring, reporting and risk mitigation measures while meeting Bank Secrecy Act obligations in line with FinCEN guidance on cannabis-related businesses. Its services include Program Management Support, Customer Lead Generation, Ongoing Program Auditing, and Compliance Monitoring among others.
Executives
| Doug Fagan |
director |
1526 COLE BLVD, SUITE 250, GOLDEN CO 80401 |
| Sundie Seefried |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
5269 W. 62ND AVENUE, ARVADA CO 80003 |
| Dan Roda |
officer: EVP / Chief Operating Officer |
1526 COLE BLVD, SUITE 250, GOLDEN CO 80401 |
| Jonathon Niehaus |
director |
5269 W. 62ND AVENUE, ARVADA CO 80003 |
| Jonathan Summers |
director |
909 BANNOCK STREET, DENVER CO 80204 |
| Donald Emmi |
officer: Chief Legal Officer |
5269 W. 62ND AVENUE, ARVADA CO 80003 |
| Richard Carleton |
director |
5269 W. 62ND AVENUE, ARVADA CO 80003 |
| John Darwin |
director |
909 BANNOCK STREET, DENVER CO 80204 |
| Jennifer Meyers |
director |
5269 W. 62ND AVENUE, ARVADA CO 80003 |
| Jim Dennedy |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
5269 W. 62ND AVENUE, ARVADA CO 80003 |
| Partner Colorado Credit Union |
10 percent owner |
6221 SHERIDAN BLVD, ARVADA CO 80003 |
| Karl Racine |
director |
5269 W. 62ND AVENUE, ARVADA CO 80003 |
| Tyler Beuerlein |
officer: Chief Business Develop Officer |
5269 W. 62ND AVENUE, ARVADA CO 80003 |
| Midtown East Management Nl Llc |
10 percent owner |
ONE ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10020 |
| Atalaya Special Purpose Investment Fund Ii Lp |
10 percent owner |
C/O ATALAYA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP, ONE ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10020 |
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