What is Splash Beverage Group Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Splash Beverage Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Splash Beverage Group (Splash Beverage Group) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1314 East Las Olas Boulevard, Suite 221, Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA, 33301
Splash Beverage Group Inc is a portfolio company managing multiple brands across several growth segments within the consumer beverage industry. SBG operates in both the non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverage segments. The company's operations have its own vertically integrated B-to-B and B-to-C e-commerce distribution platform called Qplash, further expanding its distribution abilities and visibility. Its brands include TapouT and Salt Tequila. The company operates in two segments: Splash Beverage Group and E-Commerce.
Executives
| Frederick William Caple |
director |
853 VANDERBILT BEACH RD., #218, NAPLES FL 34108 |
| Robert Nistico |
director, officer: CEO, President and Chairman |
1314 E. LAS OLAS BLVD, SUITE #221, FT LAUDERDALE FL 33301 |
| Ronald Charles Wall |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1453 BISCAYA DRIVE, SURFSIDE FL 33154 |
| William R. Meissner |
officer: President and CMO |
C/O JONES SODA CO., 234 9TH AVENUE NORTH, SEATTLE WA 98109 |
| Fatima Dhalla |
officer: Interim CFO |
1010 PALM AVE, #302, WEST HOLLYWOOD CA 90069 |
| Candace Crawford |
director |
1314 EAST LS OLAS BLVD, SUITE 221, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301 |
| Peter J Mcdonough |
director |
405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Dean Scott Huge |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
2817 NE 32ND STREET, #201, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33306 |
| Justin W Yorke |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Secretary |
C/O JMG EXPLORATION, 180 SOUTH LAKE AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101 |
| Michael Thomas Long |
director |
1603 PASEO CARMEL, SAN DIMAS CA 91773 |
| John Matthias Lepo |
director |
927 15TH STREET, SUITE #1, SANTA MONICA CA 90403 |
| Heather Kearns |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
4704 SONADO PL, PARKER CO 80134 |
| Michael J. West |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO |
16325 EAST DORADO AVE., CENTENNIAL CO 80111 |
| Wesbev Llc |
10 percent owner |
4 RICHLAND PLACE, PASADENA CA 91103 |
| Stephen H. West |
director, officer: CFO and Secretary |
16325 EAST DORADO AVE., CENTENNIAL CO 80111 |
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