Sandy Spring Bancorp (Sandy Spring Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Sandy Spring Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sandy Spring Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Sandy Spring Bancorp (Sandy Spring Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Sandy Spring Bancorp Inc (NAS:SASR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

17801 Georgia Avenue, Olney, MD, USA, 20832

Website

https://www.sandyspringbank.com

Sandy Spring Bancorp Inc is a community-oriented banking organization that conducts a full-service commercial banking business in Central Maryland, Northern Virginia, and Washington D.C. It conducts business in two operating segments. The Community Banking segment, which is the key revenue driver, involves delivering a broad range of financial products and services, including loan and deposit products to individuals and businesses and The Investment Management segment provides financial planning including cash flow analysis, investment review, tax planning, retirement planning, insurance analysis, and estate planning.

Executives

Craig A Ruppert	director
Susan Lynne Pulford	officer: EVP, Consumer Banking	SANDY SPRING BANK, OLNEY MD 20832
Kenneth C Cook	officer: EVP, Division President	TWO HOPKINS PLAZA, BALTIMORE MD 21201
Gary John Fernandes	officer: EVP, Chief Human Resources Off	SANDY SPRING BANCORP, INC., 17801 GEORGIA AVENUE, OLNEY MD 20832
Daniel J Schrider	officer: Executive Vice President
James J Maiwurm	director
Mark E Friis	director	SANDY SPRING BANK, 17801 GEORGIA AVENUE, OLNEY MD 20832
Mark C Michael	director	C/O WASHINGTONFIRST BANKSHARES, INC., 11921 FREEDOM DRIVE, SUITE 250, RESTON VA 20190
Pamela A Little	director	SANDY SPRING BANK, 17801 GEORGIA AVENUE, OLNEY MD 20832
Christina B O'meara	director	SANDY SPRING BANCORP, INC., 17801 GEORGIA AVENUE, OLNLEY MD 20832
Martz Walter Clayton Ii	director	SANDY SPRING BANCORP, INC., 17801 GEORGIA AVENUE, OLNEY MD 20832
Brian J Lemek	director	SANDY SPRING BANCORP, INC., 17801 GERGIA AVENUE, OLNEY MD 20832
Aaron Michael Kaslow	officer: EVP, Gen'l Counsel & Secretary	17801 GEORGIA AVENUE, OLNEY MD 20832
Ronda M Mcdowell	officer: EVP, Chief Credit Officer	SANDY SPRING BANCORP, INC., 17801 GEORGIA AVENUE, OLNEY MD 20832
Mark C Micklem	director	2101 BELLE HAVEN, ALEXANDRIA VA 22307