Riverview Bancorp (Riverview Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Riverview Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Riverview Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Riverview Bancorp (Riverview Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Riverview Bancorp Inc (NAS:RVSB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

900 Washington Street, Suite 900, Vancouver, WA, USA, 98660

Website

https://www.riverviewbank.com

Riverview Bancorp Inc is an American savings and loan holding company. The company through its subsidiaries engages in the business of attracting deposits and puts it to use in its market area to originate commercial business. It organizes in two operating segments, Banking Operations performed by the bank and trust and Investment Services performed by the Trust company. The company products and services include checking, saving, money market, mortgage, home equity, consumer, online banking, cash management, and others.

Executives

Robert Benke	officer: EVP/CCO	900 WASHINGTON ST, STE 900, VANCOUVER WA 98660
Valerie Moreno	director	900 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 900, VANCOUVER WA 98660
Michael Sventek	officer: EVP/CLO	900 WASHINGTON ST, SUITE 900, VANCOUVER WA 98660
Stacey Graham	director	900 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 900, VANCOUVER WA 98660
Bradley Carlson	director	900 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 900, VANCOUVER WA 98660
Bessie Ross Wills	director	900 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 900, VANCOUVER WA 98660
Sowers Courtney Evan	officer: President/CEO - Trust Co.	900 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 900, VANCOUVER WA 98660
Larry Hoff	director	900 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 900, VANCOUVER WA 98660
Tracie L. Jellison	officer: Chief Retail Banking Officer	900 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 900, VANCOUVER WA 98660
Patricia Eby	director	900 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 900, VANCOUVER WA 98660
John A Karas	officer: Sr. Vice President	900 WASHINGTON ST, SUITE 900, VANCOUVER WA 98660
Martin S. Friedman	10 percent owner, other: See Remarks below	7901 JONES BRANCH DR. SUITE 210, MCLEAN VA 22102
David Nierenberg	director	19605 NE 8TH STREET, CAMAS WA 98607
Kim J Capeloto	officer: Executive Vice President	900 WASHINGTON ST., SUITE 900, VANCOUVER WA 98660
Daniel D Cox	officer: EVP, Chief Credit Officer	900 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 900, VANCOUVER WA 98660