Rocket Lab USA (Rocket Lab USA) Predictability Rank

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What is Rocket Lab USA Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rocket Lab USA Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Rocket Lab USA (Rocket Lab USA) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Rocket Lab USA Inc (NAS:RKLB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

6RJ:Germany

Address

3881 McGowen Street, Long Beach, CA, USA, 90808

Website

https://www.rocketlabusa.com

Rocket Lab USA Inc is engaged in space, building rockets, and spacecraft. It provides end-to-end mission services that provide frequent and reliable access to space for civil, defence, and commercial markets. It designs and manufactures the Electron and Neutron launch vehicles and Photon satellite platform. Rocket Lab's Electron launch vehicle has delivered more than 100 satellites to orbit for private and public sector organizations, enabling operations in national security, scientific research, space debris mitigation, Earth observation, climate monitoring, and communications. The business operates in two segments being Launch Services and Space systems. Geographically it serves Japan, Germany, rest of the world and earns key revenue from the United States.

Executives

Adam C. Spice	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2051 PALOMAR AIRPORT ROAD, SUITE 100, CARLSBAD CA 92011
Arjun Kampani	officer: See Remarks	C/O AEROJET ROCKETDYNE HOLDINGS, INC., 2001 AEROJET ROAD, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95742
Nina Armagno	director	C/O ROCKET LAB USA, INC., 3881 MCGOWEN ST, LONG BEACH CA 90808
Peter Beck	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President, CEO and Chairman	C/O ROCKET LAB USA, INC., 3881, LONG BEACH CA 90808
Michael D Griffin	director	21700 ATLANTIC BLVD, ORBITAL SCIENCES CORP, DULLES VA 20166
Shaun O'donnell	officer: EVP - Global Operations	C/O ROCKET LAB USA, INC., 3881 MCGOWEN STREET, LONG BEACH CA 90808
Edward H. Frank	director	C/O FUSION-IO, INC., 2855 E. COTTONWOOD PARKWAY, SUITE 100, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121
Alexander R Slusky	director	456 MONTGOMERY STREET, 19TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Khosla Ventures Seed B (cf), L.p.	10 percent owner	2128 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Cowan David J/ca	director	50 WOODSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 720, REDWOOD CITY CA 94061
Peek Street Equatorial Trustee Ltd	10 percent owner	123 CELTIC CRESCENT, ELLERSLIE, AUCKLAND Q2 1051
Jon A Olson	director	2100 LOGIC DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95124
Equatorial Trust	10 percent owner	123 CELTIC CRESCENT, ELLERSLIE, AUCKLAND Q2 1051
Kerryn Beck	10 percent owner	C/O ROCKET LAB USA, INC., 3881 MCGOWEN STREET, LONG BEACH CA 90808
Warren Butler	10 percent owner	C/O ROCKET LAB USA, INC., 3881 MCGOWEN STREET, LONG BEACH CA 90808