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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Rocket Lab USA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Aerospace & Defense subindustry, Rocket Lab USA's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Aerospace & Defense industry and Industrials sector, Rocket Lab USA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Rocket Lab USA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | -7.52 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 0.05% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Rocket Lab USA (NAS:RKLB) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Rocket Lab USA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Adam C. Spice | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 2051 PALOMAR AIRPORT ROAD, SUITE 100, CARLSBAD CA 92011 |
Arjun Kampani | officer: See Remarks | C/O AEROJET ROCKETDYNE HOLDINGS, INC., 2001 AEROJET ROAD, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95742 |
Nina Armagno | director | C/O ROCKET LAB USA, INC., 3881 MCGOWEN ST, LONG BEACH CA 90808 |
Peter Beck | director, 10 percent owner, officer: President, CEO and Chairman | C/O ROCKET LAB USA, INC., 3881, LONG BEACH CA 90808 |
Michael D Griffin | director | 21700 ATLANTIC BLVD, ORBITAL SCIENCES CORP, DULLES VA 20166 |
Shaun O'donnell | officer: EVP - Global Operations | C/O ROCKET LAB USA, INC., 3881 MCGOWEN STREET, LONG BEACH CA 90808 |
Edward H. Frank | director | C/O FUSION-IO, INC., 2855 E. COTTONWOOD PARKWAY, SUITE 100, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121 |
Alexander R Slusky | director | 456 MONTGOMERY STREET, 19TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104 |
Khosla Ventures Seed B (cf), L.p. | 10 percent owner | 2128 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
Cowan David J/ca | director | 50 WOODSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 720, REDWOOD CITY CA 94061 |
Peek Street Equatorial Trustee Ltd | 10 percent owner | 123 CELTIC CRESCENT, ELLERSLIE, AUCKLAND Q2 1051 |
Jon A Olson | director | 2100 LOGIC DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95124 |
Equatorial Trust | 10 percent owner | 123 CELTIC CRESCENT, ELLERSLIE, AUCKLAND Q2 1051 |
Kerryn Beck | 10 percent owner | C/O ROCKET LAB USA, INC., 3881 MCGOWEN STREET, LONG BEACH CA 90808 |
Warren Butler | 10 percent owner | C/O ROCKET LAB USA, INC., 3881 MCGOWEN STREET, LONG BEACH CA 90808 |
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