QuantumScape (QuantumScape) Predictability Rank

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What is QuantumScape Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

QuantumScape Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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QuantumScape (QuantumScape) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » QuantumScape Corp (NYSE:QS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

QS:Mexico

Address

1730 Technology Drive, San Jose, CA, USA, 95110

Website

https://www.quantumscape.com

QuantumScape Corp is engaged in the development of next-generation solid-state lithium-metal batteries for use in electric vehicles. It developed an anode-less cell design, which delivers high energy density while lowering material costs and simplifying manufacturing.

Executives

Jurgen Leohold	director	1730 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Mohit Singh	officer: Chief Development Officer	1730 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Kevin Hettrich	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1730 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Jeffrey B Straubel	director	C/O TESLA MOTORS, INC., 3500 DEER CREEK ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Mccarthy Michael O Iii	officer: Chief Legal Officer	1730 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Srinivasan Sivaram	officer: President	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Timothy Holme	officer: Chief Technology Officer	1730 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Gena C Lovett	director	11324 FOX CREEK FARM WAY, GREAT FALLS VA 22066
Jagdeep Singh	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer, other: Chairman	C/O INFINERA CORPORATION, 169 JAVA DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Dipender Saluja	director	1730 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Fritz Prinz	director	1730 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Susan Huppertz	director	1730 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Justin E Mirro	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	40300 TRADITIONS DRIVE, NORTHVILLE MI 48168
Jeneanne Michelle Hanley	director	21557 TELEGRAPH ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Brad W Buss	director	198 CHAMPION COURT, SAN JOSE CA 95134