PubMatic (PubMatic) Predictability Rank

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What is PubMatic Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PubMatic Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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PubMatic (PubMatic) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » PubMatic Inc (NAS:PUBM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

601 Marshall Street, Redwood City, CA, USA, 94063

Website

https://www.pubmatic.com

PubMatic is one of the leading supply-side platform providers in the digital advertising technology market. These platforms help publishers, which supply digital ad inventory, better manage their inventory, selling a high percentage of their inventory (increase the ad fill rate) and maximizing revenue per ad sold (optimize yield). PubMatic generates revenue mainly via taking a piece of the ad sales that it enables. Buyers on the platform include intermediary buyers, such as demand-side platforms, or advertisers and ad agencies directly. Given the growth in overall digital advertising, more publishers and advertisers are adopting programmatic (or automated) buying and selling, driving the firm's success in attracting more inventory.

Executives

Paulina Klimenko	officer: Chief Growth Officer	C/O PUBMATIC, INC., 601 MARSHALL STREET, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Rajeev K. Goel	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O PUBMATIC, INC., 3 LAGOON DRIVE, SUITE 180, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Steven Pantelick	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PUBMATIC, INC., 3 LAGOON DRIVE, SUITE 180, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Andrew Woods	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	C/O PUBMATIC, INC., 601 MARSHALL STREET, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Amar K. Goel	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, Chief Growth Officer	C/O PUBMATIC, INC., 3 LAGOON DRIVE, SUITE 180, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Mukul Kumar	officer: President, Engineering	C/O PUBMATIC, INC., 3 LAGOON DRIVE, SUITE 180, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Nikhil Ramesh Mehta	director	C/O F5 NETWORKS, INC., 401 ELLIOTT AVE. WEST, SEATTLE WA 98119
Anton Hanebrink	director	C/O PUBMATIC, INC., 601 MARSHALL STREET, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Lisa Gimbel	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O PUBMATIC, INC., 601 MARSHALL STREET, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Van Der Zweep Michael	officer: Controller	C/O PUBMATIC, INC., 3 LAGOON DRIVE, SUITE 180, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Jeffrey K. Hirsch	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O PUBMATIC, INC., 3 LAGOON DRIVE, SUITE 180, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Susan Daimler	director	C/O PUBMATIC, INC., 3 LAGOON DRIVE, SUITE 180, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Thomas C. Chow	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O PUBMATIC, INC., 3 LAGOON DRIVE, SUITE 180, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Shelagh Glaser	director	ZENDESK, INC., 989 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Yakov (jacob) Shulman	director	C/O MELLANOX TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 350 OAKMEAD PARKWAY, SUITE 100, SUNNYVALE CA 94085