What is Porch Group Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Porch Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Porch Group (Porch Group) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
411 1st Avenue South, Suite 501, Seattle, WA, USA, 98104
Porch Group Inc is a vertical software company reinventing the home services and insurance industries. It has two reportable segments: The vertical Software segment provides software and services to home services companies. The Vertical Software segment has three types of customers: home services companies, such as home inspectors, mortgage companies, and loan officers, consumers, such as homebuyers and homeowners, and service providers, such as moving companies, security companies, and title companies, and The insurance segment offers various property-related insurance policies through its risk-bearing carrier, independent agency, and risk-bearing home warranty companies.
Executives
| Camilla Velasquez |
director |
C/O PORCH GROUP, INC., 411 1ST AVE S, STE. 501, SEATTLE WA 98104 |
| Rachel Lam |
director |
C/O TREMOR VIDEO, INC., 53 WEST 23RD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10010 |
| Matt Ehrlichman |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, Chairman and Founder |
411 1ST AVENUE S., SUITE 501, SEATTLE WA 98104 |
| Park West Asset Management Llc |
10 percent owner |
1 LETTERMAN DRIVE, SUITE C5-900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129 |
| Sean Davis Kell |
director |
411 1ST AVENUE S., SUITE 501, SEATTLE WA 98104 |
| Matthew Neagle |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
411 1ST AVENUE S., SUITE 501, SEATTLE WA 98104 |
| Shawn Tabak |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
23 BERENS DRIVE, KENTFIELD CA 94904 |
| Amanda L Reierson |
director |
C/O PORCH GROUP, INC., 411 1ST AVE S, STE. 501, SEATTLE WA 98104 |
| Martin L. Heimbigner |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
110 - 110TH AVE., NE, SUITE 300, BELLEVUE WA 98004 |
| Asha Sharma |
director |
2201 1ST AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 300, SEATTLE WA 98134 |
| Maurice Tulloch |
director |
411 1ST AVENUE S., SUITE 501, SEATTLE WA 98104 |
| Thomas D Hennessy |
director |
3485 N. PINES WAY SUITE 110, WILSON WY 83014 |
| Regi Vengalil |
director |
411 1ST AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 501, SEATTLE WA 98104 |
| Javier Saade |
director |
2201 1ST AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 300, SEATTLE WA 98134 |
| Alan R Pickerill |
director |
C/O PORCH GROUP, INC., 411 1ST AVE S, STE. 501, SEATTLE WA 98104 |
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