Peoples Bancorp (Marietta OH) (Peoples Bancorp (Marietta OH)) Predictability Rank

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What is Peoples Bancorp (Marietta OH) Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Peoples Bancorp (Marietta OH) Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Peoples Bancorp (Marietta OH) Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Peoples Bancorp (Marietta OH) (Peoples Bancorp (Marietta OH)) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Peoples Bancorp Inc (Marietta OH) (NAS:PEBO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

138 Putnam Street, PO Box 738, Marietta, OH, USA, 45750-0738

Website

https://www.peoplesbancorp.com

Peoples Bancorp Inc (Marietta OH) is a financial holding company. As a community bank, it offers a complete line of banking, insurance, investment and trust solutions through its financial subsidiaries. It offers demand deposit accounts, savings accounts, real estate mortgage loans, merchant credit card transaction processing services, corporate and personal trust services, life, health, property, and casualty insurance products, brokerage services. The firm also offers telephone and internet-based banking through both personal computers and mobile devices.

Executives

Carol A Schneeberger	officer: Executive VP - Operations	138 PUTNAM STREET, MARIETTA OH 45750
Mark Augenstein	officer: EVP, Operations	138 PUTNAM STREET, MARIETTA OH 45750
Charles W Sulerzyski	director, officer: President and CEO	138 PUTNAM ST, PO BOX 738, MARIETTA OH 45750-0738
Macia Matthew Joseph Blazar	officer: Chief Risk Officer	138 PUTNAM STREET, MARIETTA OH 45750
Hugh J Donlon	officer: EVP, Community Banking	138 PUTNAM STREET, MARIETTA OH 45750
Dwight Eric Smith	director	518 EAST BROAD STREET, COLUMBUS OH 43215
W Glenn Hogan	director	420 W. LIBERTY STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Frances A Skinner	director	138 PUTNAM STREET, MARIETTA OH 45750
Susan D. Rector	director	138 PUTNAM STREET, PO BOX 738, MARIETTA OH 45750
S Craig Beam	director	P.O. BOX 738, 138 PUTNAM STREET, MARIETTA OH 45750
Matthew Edgell	officer: Chief of Staff	138 PUTNAM STREET, MARIETTA OH 45750
Michael Ryan Kirkham	officer: EVP/General Counsel	138 PUTNAM STREET, MARIETTA OH 45750
Kevin R Reeves	director	138 PUTNAM STREET, MARIETTA OH 45750
James S. Huggins	director	138 PUTNAM STREET, P.O. BOX 738, MARIETTA OH 45750
Michael N Vittorio	director