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Oconee Financial (Oconee Financial) Predictability Rank


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What is Oconee Financial Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Oconee Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Oconee Financial Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Oconee Financial's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Oconee Financial (Oconee Financial) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Oconee Financial Corp (OTCPK:OSBK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
OTTW MSVB CMUV VWFB CNAF GNRV PNBK QNTO CIBH FBPA CAR:BPV CAR:MVZ.A CAR:BNC NSE:HDFCBANK SHSE:600036 NSE:ICICIBANK SAU:1120 ISX:BBCA XPAR:BNP MIC:SBER
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
41 N. Main Street, Watkinsville, GA, USA, 30677
Website
https://www.oconeestatebank.com
Oconee Financial Corp is a United States-based commercial bank. The bank offers personal and business products and services including checking, savings, CDs, loans, mortgages, credit cards, safe deposit boxes, mobile deposits, business loans, and treasury services.
Executives
G Robert Bishop director 1741 EXPERIMENT STATION ROAD, WATKINSVILLE GA 30677
B Amrey Harden director, officer: President and CEO 35 NORTH MAIN STREET, P.O. BOX 205, WATKINSVILLE GA 30677
Hale J Albert Sr director P.O.BOX 205, WATKINSVILLE GA 30677
Steven Anthony Rogers officer: Chief Financial Officer 35 NORTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX 205, WATKINSVILLE GA 30677
Virginia S Wells director, 10 percent owner OCONEE FINANCIAL CORP, 35 N MAIN ST, WATKINSVILLE GA 30677
Ann B. Powers director 1051 ROSE CREEK DRIVE, WATKINSVILLE GA 30087
Douglas D Dickens director 1071 RAYS CHURCH RD, BISHOP GA 30621
Henry C Maxey director 1181 MAXEY ROAD, BISHOP GA 30621
Jimmy L Christopher director P.O. BOX 405, WATKINSVILLE GA 30677
Tom F Wilson officer: Executive Vice President OCONEE FINANCIAL CORP, 35 N MAIN ST, WATKINSVILLE GA 30677