NSTS Bancorp (NSTS Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is NSTS Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NSTS Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

NSTS Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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NSTS Bancorp (NSTS Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » NSTS Bancorp Inc (NAS:NSTS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

700 S. Lewis Avenue, Waukegan, IL, USA, 60085

Website

https://www.northshoretrust.com

NSTS Bancorp Inc is a savings and loan holding company regulated Federal Reserve Board. The company was formed to serve as the North Shore Trust and Savings stock holding company. The Bank is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company and operates as a traditional savings institution focused primarily on serving the banking needs of customers in our market area of Lake County, Illinois and adjacent communities.

Executives

Carissa H Schoolcraft	officer: Chief Financial Officer	700 SOUTH LEWIS AVENUE, WAUKEGAN IL 60085
Kevin M Dolan	director	3850 N CAUSEWAY BLVD STE 800, METAIRIE LA 70002
Nathan E Walker	officer: President	700 SOUTH LEWIS AVENUE, WAUKEGAN IL 60085
Amy L Avakian	officer: Chief Lending Officer	700 SOUTH LEWIS AVENUE, WAUKEGAN IL 60085
Stephen G. Lear	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	700 SOUTH LEWIS AVENUE, WAUKEGAN IL 60085
Thomas J Kneesel	director	700 SOUTH LEWIS AVENUE, WAUKEGAN IL 60085
Rodney J, True	director	700 SOUTH LEWIS AVENUE, WAUKEGAN IL 60085
Bond Thaddeus M. Jr.	director	700 SOUTH LEWIS AVENUE, WAUKEGAN IL 60085
Apolonio Arenas	director	700 SOUTH LEWIS AVENUE, WAUKEGAN IL 60085
Thomas M Ivantic	director	700 SOUTH LEWIS AVENUE, WAUKEGAN IL 60085

NSTS Bancorp (NSTS Bancorp) Headlines

From GuruFocus

North Shore Trust and Savings Announces Expansion of Mortgage Lending Department

By Marketwired • 10-23-2023

NSTS Bancorp Announces Extension of Stock Repurchase Program

By Marketwired • 10-06-2023

NSTS Bancorp Announces Authorization of Stock Repurchase Program

By GlobeNewswire • 12-21-2023

Nathan E. Walker Appointed CEO of North Shore Trust and Savings

By PurpleRose PurpleRose • 07-26-2022

NSTS Bancorp, Inc. Announces Closing of Conversion and Stock Offering

By GuruFocusNews GuruFocusNews • 01-19-2022

NSTS Bancorp Announces Authorization of Stock Repurchase Program

By sperokesalga sperokesalga • 03-31-2023