Meridian (Meridian) Predictability Rank

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What is Meridian Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Meridian Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Meridian (Meridian) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Meridian Corp (NAS:MRBK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

9 Old Lincoln Highway, Malvern, PA, USA, 19335

Website

https://www.meridianbanker.com

Meridian Corp is a full-service, state-chartered commercial bank providing personal, business lending, and deposit services. It operates in three business segments including Bank, Wealth, and Mortgage. The Bank segment consists of commercial and retail banking. The mortgage division consists of a mortgage consultant's guide. Its mortgage portfolio includes commercial mortgage, home equity, residential mortgage, construction, commercial, industrial, and consumer loans. It generates maximum revenue from the Bank segment.

Executives

Denise Lindsay	director, officer: Exec Vice President and CFO	9 OLD LINCOLN HIGHWAY, MALVERN PA 19355
Anthony Mark Imbesi	director	9 OLD LINCOLN HIGHWAY, MALVERN PA 19355
Christopher J. Annas	director, officer: Chairman & CEO	9 OLD LINCOLN HIGHWAY, MALVERN PA 19355
Robert M. Casciato	director	9 OLD LINCOLN HIGHWAY, MALVERN PA 19355
Robert T. Holland	director	9 OLD LINCOLN HIGHWAY, MALVERN PA 19355
Edward J. Hollin	director	9 OLD LINCOLN HIGHWAY, MALVERN PA 19355
Christine Marie Helmig	director	575 WELLINGTON SQUARE, UNIT 205, EXTON PA 19341
Collier George C. Iii	director	9 OLD LINCOLN HIGHWAY, MALVERN PA 19355
Charles D. Kochka	officer: Chief Lending Officer	9 OLD LINCOLN HIGHWAY, MALVERN PA 19355
Kenneth H. Slack	director	9 OLD LINCOLN HIGHWAY, MALVERN PA 19355
Joseph L. Cafarchio	officer: Chief Credit Officer	9 OLD LINCOLN HIGHWAY, MALVERN PA 19355
Randall J Mcgarry	officer: Chief Information Officer	4390 DAVISVILLE ROAD, HATBORO PA 19040