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Miller Energy Resources (Miller Energy Resources) Predictability Rank


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What is Miller Energy Resources Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Miller Energy Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Miller Energy Resources Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Miller Energy Resources's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Miller Energy Resources (Miller Energy Resources) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Miller Energy Resources Inc was formed in Delaware in November 1985. In January 1997, it acquired Miller Petroleum, Inc., a privately-held company, in a reverse merger in which Miller Petroleum, Inc. In conjunction with this transaction, the Company changed its name to Miller Petroleum, Inc. and re-domesticated to the State of Tennessee. The Company is an exploration and production company that utilizes seismic data and other technologies for the geophysical exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas wells in the Cook Inlet Basin of southcentral Alaska and the Appalachian region of eastern Tennessee. The Company focuses its efforts on activities in the Cook Inlet and Susitna Basins of Alaska as well as the Appalachian region of East Tennessee. The Cook Inlet Basin contains large oil and gas deposits including multiple offshore fields. The Cook Inlet is a vast estuary stretching 180 miles from the Gulf of Alaska to Anchorage in southcentral Alaska. The Inlet separates the Kenai Peninsula in the east from the Alaska Peninsula in the west. The Cook Inlet Basin underlying this region contains large oil and gas deposits including several offshore fields. There are also numerous oil and gas pipelines located in and under the Cook Inlet. The Cook Inlet Basin has produced approximately 1.3 billion barrels of oil and 7.8 trillion cubic feet ('tcf') of natural gas. The Susitna Basin underlies the sprawling Susitna River valley to the north of Anchorage. The Susitna Basin lies directly north of the Cook Inlet Basin, separated by the Castle Mountain Fault, and has similar geology. Wells drilled within its acreage range from approximately 1,500 to 4,200 feet in depth with major targets in descending order being: the Mississippian age Monteagle Limestone and Fort Payne Limestone, and the Devonian age Chattanooga Shale, with the Fort Payne Limestone being the primary oil target. The existing markets for natural gas production in southcentral Alaska are the Tesoro Nikiski Refinery, utility companies, petrochemical manufacturing, the production of LNG for export to Asian markets, and the production of synthetic crude oil ('syncrude'). Presently, its sole market for crude oil produced from its Alaskan operations is the Tesoro Nikiski Refinery. Crude oil is shipped by pipeline and tanker vessel to the Tesoro Nikiski Refinery, operated by Tesoro Alaska Petroleum Company ('Tesoro'). It competes with a number of other companies doing business in Alaska, Tennessee and elsewhere, including large oil and gas companies and other operators. The Company's exploration and production business is subject to various federal, state and local laws and regulations on the taxation of natural gas and oil, the development, production and marketing of natural gas and oil and environmental and safety matters.
Executives
Daniel Vogel director C/O APOLLO MANAGEMENT, L.P., 9 WEST 57TH, NEW YORK NY 10019
Apollo Management Holdings Gp, Llc 10 percent owner 9 W. 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Highbridge Principal Strategies - Specialty Loan Fund Iii, L.p. 10 percent owner 40 WEST 57TH STREET, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Jeffrey Fitts director C/O MILLER ENERGY RESOURCES, INC., 9721 COGDILL ROAD, SUITE 302, KNOXVILLE TN 37932
Apollo Investment Management, L.p. 10 percent owner 2711 CENTERVILLE ROAD, SUITE 400, WILMINGTON DE 19808
Apollo Investment Corp 10 percent owner 9 W. 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Highbridge Specialty Loan Sector D Investment Fund, L.p. 10 percent owner C/O HIGHBRIDGE PRINCIPAL STRATEGIES, LLC, 40 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Don Dimitrievich director C/O MILLER ENERGY RESOURCES, INC., 9721 COGDILL ROAD, SUITE 302, KNOXVILLE TN 37932
Gerald Girardi director C/O APOLLO MANAGEMENT, L.P., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Apollo Capital Management, L.p. 10 percent owner 9 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Apollo Capital Management Gp, Llc 10 percent owner 9 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Apollo Management Holdings, L.p. 10 percent owner 9 W. 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Leland E Tate officer: Interim COO 4600 POST OAK PLACE STE 200, HOUSTON TX 77027
Phillip G Elliott officer: SVP and CFO 9721 COGDILL ROAD, SUITE 302, KNOXVILLE TN 37932
Jeffrey R Mcinturff officer: CAO 9721 COGDILL ROAD, SUITE 302, KNOXVILLE TN 37932

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