MISTRAS Group (MISTRAS Group) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2009. Start your Free Trial

What is MISTRAS Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MISTRAS Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

MISTRAS Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of MISTRAS Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

MISTRAS Group (MISTRAS Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » MISTRAS Group Inc (NYSE:MG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MIY:Germany

Address

195 Clarksville Road, Princeton Junction, NJ, USA, 08550

Website

https://www.mistrasgroup.com

MISTRAS Group Inc provides asset protection solutions and systems. The company evaluates the structural integrity and reliability of critical energy, industrial, and public infrastructure. The company's three operating segments are Service, International and Products and Systems, of which key revenue is derived from the Services segment. Services segment provides asset protection solutions predominantly in North America, with the large amount of concentration in the United States, followed by Canada, consisting of non-destructive testing, and inspection. The asset protection solutions include field inspections, consulting, maintenance, data management, access, monitoring and laboratory quality assurance.

Executives

Nicholas Debenedictis	director	GLATFELTER, 96 SOUTH GEORGE ST STE 420, YORK PA 17401
John Anthony Smith	officer: Executive Vice President	195 CLARKSVILLE RD, PRINCETON JUNCTION NJ 08550
Gennaro A. D'alterio	officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer	PO BOX 144, HARLEYSVILLE PA 19438
Sotirios Vahaviolos January 2023 2-year Grantor Retained Annuity Trust	10 percent owner	C/O MISTRAS GROUP, 195 CLARKSVILLE ROAD, PRINCETON JUNCTION NJ 08550
Richard H Glanton	director	C/O THE GEO GROUP, INC., 4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Manuel N. Stamatakis	director	C/O MISTRAS GROUP, INC., 195 CLARKSVILLE ROAD, PRINCETON JUNCTION NJ 08550
Charles P Pizzi	director	C/O TASTY BAKING COMPANY, NAVY YARD CORP. CTR., THREE CRESCENT DR., PHILADELPHIA PA 19112
Michelle Lohmeier	director	C/O SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS HOLDINGS, INC., WICHITA KS 67210
Dennis Bertolotti	officer: President and COO, Services	C/O MISTRAS GROUP, 195 CLARKSVILLE ROAD, PRINCETON JUNCTION NJ 08550
James J Forese	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SFN GROUP INC, 2050 SPECTRUM BOULEVARD, FT. LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Wayne Curtis Weldon	director	4687 WEST CHESTER PIKE, NEWTOWN SQUARE PA 19073
Sotirios J. Vahaviolos	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	C/O MISTRAS GROUP, INC., 195 CLARKSVILLE ROAD, PRINCETON JUNCTION NJ 08550
Jonathan H Wolk	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	3102 SHAWNEE DRIVE, WINCHESTER VA 22601
Michael C Keefe	officer: EVP, General Counsel	C/O MISTRAS GROUP, 195 CLARKSVILLE ROAD, PRINCETON JUNCTION NJ 08550
Edward J Prajzner	officer: Sr. VP, CFO and Treasurer	C/O TECHNITROL, INC., 1210 NORTHBROOK DRIVE, SUITE 470, TREVOSE PA 19053