What is Ramaco Resources Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Ramaco Resources Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Ramaco Resources (Ramaco Resources) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
250 West Main Street, Suite 1900, Lexington, KY, USA, 40507
Ramaco Resources Inc is a United States-based company engaged in operating and developing high-quality, low-cost metallurgical coal in southern West Virginia, southwestern Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania. Its only revenue-generating product is metallurgical coal which is used to make metallurgical coke. This is used as an input in the blast furnace steel-making process. The company's customer base encompasses U.S.-based blast furnace steel mills and U.S.-based coke plants, as well as international metallurgical coal consumers. Ramaco's portfolio comprises of the Elk Creek, Berwind, RAM Mine, and Knox Creek projects.
Executives
| Bryan H Lawrence |
director |
C/O CROSSTEX ENERGY HOLDINGS INC, 2501 CEDAR SPRINGS STE 600, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Peter A Leidel |
director |
|
| Yorktown Energy Partners Ix, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
410 PARK AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Yorktown Ix Associates Llc |
10 percent owner |
410 PARK AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Yorktown Energy Partners Xi, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
410 PARK AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Yorktown Xi Associates Llc |
10 percent owner |
410 PARK AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Richard M Whiting |
director |
250 WEST MAIN STREET, SUITE 210, LEXINGTON KY 40507 |
| Frischkorn David E K |
director |
1301 MCKINNEY ST., SUITE 3550, HOUSTON TX 77010-3053 |
| Aurelia Skipwith Giacometto |
director |
20 F STREET, NW SUITE 700, WASHINGTON DC 40509 |
| James Scott Kreutzer |
officer: SVP & Chief Admin. Officer |
C/O CONTURA ENERGY, INC., 340 MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. BLVD., BRISTOL TN 37620 |
| Horn Paul Bryan Jr. |
officer: SVP & Chief Mine Dev. Officer |
C/O RAMACO RESOURCES, 20 F STREET NW, SUITE 700, WASHINGTON DC 20001 |
| Energy Capital Partners Mezzanine Opportunities Fund A, Lp |
10 percent owner |
51 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SUITE 200, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078 |
| Energy Capital Partners Mezzanine, Llc |
10 percent owner |
51 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SUITE 200, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078 |
| Energy Capital Partners Mezzanine Opportunities Fund, Lp |
10 percent owner |
51 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SUITE 200, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078 |
| Jason Todd Fannin |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
1529 EDGEMONT AVE., BRISTOL VA 37620 |
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