What is Mama`s Creations Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Mama`s Creations Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Mama`s Creations (Mama`s Creations) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
25 Branca Road, East Rutherford, NJ, USA, 07073
Mama`s Creations Inc is a marketer and manufacturer of fresh deli-prepared foods, found in over 8,400 grocery, mass, club, and convenience stores nationally. The Company's broad product portfolio, born from a rich history in Italian foods, now consists of a variety of high-quality, fresh, clean, and easy-to-prepare foods to address the needs of both consumers and retailers.
Executives
| Matthew Brown |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President |
454 TILLOU ROAD, SOUTH ORANGE NJ 07079 |
| Shirley Romig |
director |
TWO LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 300, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Meghan Henson |
director |
RADNOR CORPORATE CENTER, BUILDING ONE, SUITE 200, 100 MATSONFORD ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087 |
| Adam Laurance Michaels |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
34 HASTINGS DRIVE, TENAFLY NJ 07670 |
| Anthony Gruber |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
25 BRANCA ROAD, EAST RUTHERFORD NJ 07073 |
| Haley Patrick Connor |
director |
640 TAYLOR STREET, SUITE 2522, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| David Mcguire |
director |
10599 WILSHIRE BLVD. SUITE 307, LOS ANGELES CA 90024 |
| Dean Janeway |
director, officer: Vice-President |
164 SUNSET LANE, MANTOLOKING NJ 08738 |
| Carl T Wolf |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
627 INWOOD LANE, SOUTH ORANGE NJ 07079 |
| Steven R. Burns |
director |
635 PROSPECT STREET, MAPLEWOOD NJ 07040 |
| Daniel Joseph Altobello |
director |
6550 ROCK SPRING DR, SUITE 550, BETHESDA MD 20817 |
| Thomas G. Toto |
director |
34 BOURBON STREET, WAYNE NJ 07079 |
| Lewis H Ochs |
officer: Vice-President of Finance |
5102 CHESTERWOOD WAY, SOMERSET NJ 08873 |
| Alfred D'agostino |
director |
133 CUMBERLAND COURT, PARAMUS NJ 07652 |
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