GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Kenvue Inc (NYSE:KVUE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Kenvue (Kenvue) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2023. Start your Free Trial

What is Kenvue Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Kenvue Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Kenvue Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Kenvue's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Kenvue (Kenvue) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
199 Grandview Road, Skillman, NJ, USA, 08558
Kenvue is the world's largest pure-play consumer health company by sales, generating $15 billion in annual revenue. Formerly known as Johnson & Johnson's consumer segment, Kenvue spun off and went public in May 2023. It operates in a variety of silos within consumer health, such as cough, cold and allergy care, pain management, face and body care, and oral care, as well as women's health. Its portfolio includes a wide array of some of the most well-known brands in the space, including Tylenol, Listerine, Johnson's, Aveeno, and Neutrogena. Despite playing in a fragmented industry with intense competition and ever-changing consumer preferences, many of Kenvue's brands are the global leader in their respective segment thanks to their strong brand power.
Executives
Allison Richard E Jr director 30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Seemantini Godbole director 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Bing Xie officer: Group President, Asia Pacific 199 GRANDVIEW ROAD, SKILLMAN NJ 08558
Donna Lorenson officer: Chief Corp Affairs Officer 199 GRANDVIEW ROAD, SKILLMAN NJ 08558
Matthew Orlando officer: General Counsel 199 GRANDVIEW ROAD, SKILLMAN NJ 08558
Luani Alvarado officer: Chief People Officer 199 GRANDVIEW ROAD, SKILLMAN NJ 08558
Jan Meurer officer: Chief Growth Officer 199 GRANDVIEW ROAD, SKILLMAN NJ 08558
Carlton Lawson officer: Group President, EMEA 199 GRANDVIEW ROAD, SKILLMAN NJ 08558
Caroline Tillett officer: Chief Scientific Officer 199 GRANDVIEW ROAD, SKILLMAN NJ 08558
Bernardo Tavares officer: Chief Tech & Data Officer 199 GRANDVIEW ROAD, SKILLMAN NJ 08558
Tamara Franklin director 107 STONE CLIFF ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Betsy D Holden director DENTSPLY SIRONA INC, 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Kathy Widmer officer: Group President, NALA C/O ELIZABETH ARDEN, INC., 2400 S.W. 145 AVENUE, MIRAMAR FL 33027
Michael E Sneed director JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Joseph J Wolk director JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933

Kenvue (Kenvue) Headlines