Kura Oncology (Kura Oncology) Predictability Rank

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What is Kura Oncology Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kura Oncology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kura Oncology (Kura Oncology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Kura Oncology Inc (NAS:KURA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

KUR:Germany

Address

12730 High Bluff Drive, Suite 400, San Diego, CA, USA, 92130

Website

https://www.kuraoncology.com

Kura Oncology Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, that engages in discovering and developing therapeutics for the treatment of solid tumors and blood cancers. It focuses on the development of small-molecule product candidates that target cell signalling pathways to drive the progression of various cancers. The company has a lead product candidate, Tipifarnib, which is a farnesyl transferase inhibitor, in both solid tumors and blood cancers. It is advancing KO-947, a small molecule inhibitor of extracellular-signal-regulated kinase (ERK), as a treatment for patients with pancreatic cancer, colorectal cancer, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and melanoma. Geographically operation of the group is carried through the United States.

Executives

Brian T. Powl	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 12278 SCRIPPS SUMMIT DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Thomas Malley	director	C/O KINIKSA PHARMACEUTICALS, LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Thomas James Doyle	officer: SVP, Finance & Accounting	C/O KURA ONCOLOGY, INC., 12730 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 400, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Kirsten Flowers	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O KURA ONCOLOGY, INC., 12730 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 400, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Kathleen Ford	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O KURA ONCOLOGY, INC., 12730 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 400, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Stephen Dale	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O KURA ONCOLOGY, INC., 12730 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 400, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Teresa Brophy Bair	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O KURA ONCOLOGY, INC., 12730 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 400, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Helen Louise Collins	director	TWO CORPORATE DRIVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Carol Schafer	director	42 WHITE STREET, FOURTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Troy Edward Wilson	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O KURA ONCOLOGY, INC., 12730 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 400, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Marc Grasso	officer: CFO, CBO	C/O KURA ONCOLOGY, INC., 3033 SCIENCE PARK ROAD, SUITE 220, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Bridget A Martell	officer: Acting Chief Medical Officer	C/O POINT BIOPHARMA GLOBAL INC., 4850 WEST 78TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46268
James Basta	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O KURA ONCOLOGY, INC., 3033 SCIENCE PARK RD, SUITE 220, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Diane L. Parks	director	29 EMMONS DRIVE, SUITE B-10, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Antonio Gualberto	officer: Chief Medical Officer	245 FIRST STREET, SUITE 1820, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142