Juniata Valley Financial (Juniata Valley Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Juniata Valley Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Juniata Valley Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Juniata Valley Financial (Juniata Valley Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Juniata Valley Financial Corp (OTCPK:JUVF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Bridge and Main Streets, PO Box 66, Mifflintown, PA, USA, 17059-0066

Website

https://www.jvbonline.com

Juniata Valley Financial Corp provides financial services. The firm offers banking services such as personal checking, personal savings, online banking, mobile banking, personal loans, business loans, and other banking services. The bank generates its revenue in the form of interest income. It offers a full range of consumer and commercial banking services. Consumer banking services include online account opening; online banking; mobile banking; personal checking accounts; checking overdraft privileges; savings accounts; debit cards; certificates of deposit; individual retirement accounts, among others. Commercial banking services include low and high-volume business checking accounts; online account management services; remote deposit capability; ACH origination; payroll direct deposit.

Executives

Martin L Dreibelbis	director
Steven C. Sliver	director	6415 MARGY DRIVE, HUNTINGDON PA 16652
Scarnati Joseph B. Iii	director	978 EVERGREEN ST., BROCKWAY PA 15824
Christina Calkins-mazur	director	119 GRAND PARKWAY NORTH, LEWISTOWN PA 17044
Marcie A Barber	officer: SVP Community Office Div. Mgr.	137 OAKRIDGE ROAD, LEWISTOWN PA 17044
Bradley J. Wagner	director	1344 MASTERSONVILLE ROAD, MANHEIM PA 17545
Michael W. Wolf	officer: SVP/CFO	218 BRIDGE STREET, PO BOX 66, MIFFLINTOWN PA 17059
Timothy I Havice	director
Michael A. Buffington	director	126 ELECTRIC AVENUE, LEWISTOWN PA 17044
Gary E Kelsey	director	PO BOX 590, COUDERSPORT PA 16915
Joann Mcminn	officer: Chief Financial Officer	PO BOX 66, BRIDGE & MAIN STREET, MIFFLINTOWN PA 17059
Gingerich Philip E Jr	director
Douglas R Berry	director	105 FOXFIRE LANE, LEWISBERRY PA 17339
A Jerome Cook	director
Metz Robert K Jr	director