What is InnovAge Holding Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
InnovAge Holding Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
InnovAge Holding (InnovAge Holding) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
8950 East Lowry Boulevard, Denver, CO, USA, 80230
InnovAge Holding Corp is a healthcare delivery platform by several participants focused on providing all-inclusive, capitated care to high-cost, dual-eligible seniors. Its patient-centered care delivery approach improves the quality of care while keeping them in their homes and reducing over-utilization of high-cost care settings such as hospitals and nursing homes. The company's segment includes PACE and others. It generates maximum revenue from the PACE segment.
Executives
| Teresa Sparks |
director |
40 BURTON HILLS BOULEVARD SUITE 500, NASHVILLE TN 37215 |
| Nicole Damato |
officer: CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER |
8950 E. LOWRY BOULEVARD, DENVER CO 80230 |
| Benjamin C Adams |
officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER |
8950 E. LOWRY BOULEVARD, DENVER CO 80230 |
| Patricia Fontneau |
director |
8950 E. LOWRY BOULEVARD, DENVER CO 80230 |
| Christine Bent |
officer: CHIEF OPERATIONS OFFICER |
8950 E. LOWRY BOULEVARD, DENVER CO 80230 |
| Thomas Scully |
director |
320 PARK AVENUE, SUITE # 2500, NEW YORK NM 10022 |
| Richard Feifer |
officer: CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER |
C/O GENESIS HEALTHCARE, INC., 101 EAST STATE STREET, KENNETT SQUARE PA 19348 |
| James G Carlson |
director |
8950 E. LOWRY BOULEVARD, DENVER CO 80230 |
| Patrick T Blair |
officer: PRESIDENT |
8950 E. LOWRY BOULEVARD, DENVER CO 80230 |
| Caroline Dechert |
director |
580 CALIFORNIA ST., SUITE 1700, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104 |
| Pavithra Mahesh |
director |
601 LEXINGTON AVE., 53RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Maureen Hewitt |
director, officer: CEO, President and Director |
8950 E. LOWRY BLVD., DENVER CO 80230 |
| Maria Lozzano |
officer: CORPORATE COO |
8950 E. LOWRY BLVD., DENVER CO 80230 |
| Robin Doerr |
officer: CHIEF SALES AND MKTG. OFFICER |
8950 E. LOWRY BLVD., DENVER CO 80230 |
| Melissa Welch |
officer: CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER |
8950 E. LOWRY BLVD., DENVER CO 80230 |
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