Harbor Diversified (Harbor Diversified) Predictability Rank

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What is Harbor Diversified Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Harbor Diversified Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Harbor Diversified Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Harbor Diversified (Harbor Diversified) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Harbor Diversified Inc (OTCPK:HRBR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

W6390 Challenger Drive, Suite 203, Appleton, WI, USA, 54914-9120

Website

http://www.harborbiosciences.com

Harbor Diversified Inc operates in the Airline business. It currently operates in one service line providing scheduled flight services. It generates revenue from the Available Seat Miles.

Executives

John C Shaw	director	520 MADISON AVENUE, 40TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jerry M Seslowe	director	520 MADISON AVE, 40TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Richard A Bartlett	director	520 MADISON AVENUE, 40TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Scott M Freeman	officer: Chief Medical Officer	3031 RESEARCH DRIVE, BUILDING A, RICHMOND CA 94806
Salvatore J Zizza	director	810 SEVENTH AVE, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Jessie R Groothuis	officer: Vice Pres., Clinical Affairs	4435 EASTGATE MALL, SUITE 400, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Jerome M Hauer	director	4435 EASTGATE MALL, SUITE 400, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Thomas Merigan	director	C/O HOLLIS-EDEN PHARMACEUTICALS, 4435 EASTGATE MALL STE.400, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Brendan Mcdonnell	director	C/O HOLLIS-EDEN PHARMACEUTICALS, 4435 EASTGATE MALL STE.400, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Marc R Sarni	director	13705 SHORELINE COURT, EARTH CITY MO 63045
Daniel D Burgess	officer: COO/CFO	C/O HOLLIS-EDEN PHARMACEUTICALS, 4435 EASTGATE MALL STE.400, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Robert Marsella	officer: VP, Business Development	C/O HOLLIS-EDEN PHARMACEUTICALS, 4435 EASTGATE MALL STE.400, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Robert W Weber	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O HOLLIS-EDEN PHARMACEUTICALS, 4435 EASTGATE MALL STE.400, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Eric J Loumeau	officer: VP, Corporate General Counsel	C/O HOLLIS-EDEN PHARMACEUTICALS, 4435 EASTGATE MALL STE.400, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Paul Bagley	director	1530 16TH STREET SUITE 200, DENVER CO 80202-1468

Harbor Diversified (Harbor Diversified) Headlines

From GuruFocus

SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims on Behalf of Investors of Harbor Diversified, Inc. - HRBR

By PRNewswire • 04-04-2024