The Honest Co (The Honest Co) Predictability Rank

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What is The Honest Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Honest Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Honest Co (The Honest Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » The Honest Co Inc (NAS:HNST) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

12130 Millennium Drive, Suite 500, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90094

Website

https://www.honest.com

The Honest Co Inc is a digitally-native consumer products company to make purpose-driven consumer products designed for all people. It is an omnichannel brand, ensuring its products are available wherever its consumers shop through company's Retail and Digital channels. It has three product categories namely; Diapers and Wipes, Skin and Personal Care, and Household and Wellness, out of which the majority of its revenue is generated from the sale of diapers and wipes. The company operates only in the United States.

Executives

Stephen Winchell	officer: EVP, Operations and R&D	12130 MILLENNIUM DRIVE, SUITE 500, LOS ANGELES CA 90094
Brendan Sheehey	officer: General Counsel	12130 MILLENNIUM DRIVE, #500, LOS ANGELES CA 90094
Jessica Warren	director, officer: Chief Creative Officer	12130 MILLENNIUM DRIVE, #500, LOS ANGELES CA 90094
Institutional Venture Management Xiii, Llc	10 percent owner	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, BUILDING 2, SUITE 250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Kelly J. Kennedy	officer: EVP and CFO	C/O ANNIE'S, INC., 1610 FIFTH STREET, BERKELEY CA 94710
Rick Rexing	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	12130 MILLENNIUM DRIVE, #500, LOS ANGELES CA 90094
David Loretta	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O NORDSTROM, INC., 1700 SEVENTH AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98101
Carla Vernon	officer: Chief Executive Officer	12130 MILLENNIUM DRIVE, SUITE 500, LOS ANGELES CA 90094
James D White	director	C/O CAVA GROUP, INC., 202-400-2920 14 RIDGE SQUARE NW, SUITE 5, WASHINGTON DC 20016
Janis Hoyt	officer: Chief People Officer	12130 MILLENNIUM DRIVE, #500, LOS ANGELES CA 90094
Nikolaos A Vlahos	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1221 BROADWAY, OAKLAND CA 94612
Katherine Barton	officer: Chief Growth Officer	12130 MILLENNIUM DRIVE, SUITE 500, LOS ANGELES CA 90094
Peter C. Gerstberger	officer: Chief Digital & Strat. Officer	12130 MILLENNIUM DRIVE, SUITE 500, LOS ANGELES CA 90094
Jack Hartung	director	1543 WAZEE STREET, SUITE 200, DENVER CO 80202
Julia M Brown	director	C/O ABLE BRANDS CO., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001