ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance Co (HKSE:06060) Predictability Rank

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What is ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance Co (HKSE:06060) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance Co Ltd (HKSE:06060) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ZZHGF:USA ZZHGY:USA 1ZO:Germany

Address

219 Yuanmingyuan Road, Shanghai, CHN

Website

https://www.zhongan.com

ZhongAn was founded by Ant Financial, Tencent, Ping An Insurance, and other well-known enterprises in 2013 and is headquartered in Shanghai. The company is the first internet-based insurance company in China. It provides online underwriting and claim services through the internet without any offline branches. ZhongAn was listed in September 2017 in Hong Kong. Besides the online insurance segment, the company operates technology and banking segments. Its insurance technology segment exports digital operating system, middle platforms, and industry models to licensed financial players both domestically and overseas. Its banking segment, through Hong Kong-based virtual bank ZA Bank, offers similar services as traditional offline banks but without an offline presence.

Executives

Hangzhou Yunbo Investment Consulting Co., Ltd.
Hu Simon Xiaoming
Jiang Fang
Jing Eric Xiandong
Ma Yun
Ma Huateng	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tencent Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shen Zhen Shi Teng Xun Ji Suan Ji Xi Tong You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Ma Yi Ke Ji Ji Tuan Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Asia Pacific Promotion Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shen Zhen Ri Xun Wang Lu Ke Ji Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Sinolink Worldwide Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Timeway Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ou Yaping	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhong Guo Ping An Bao Xian Ji Tuan Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner

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