AAG Energy Holdings (HKSE:02686) Predictability Rank

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What is AAG Energy Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AAG Energy Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AAG Energy Holdings (HKSE:02686) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » AAG Energy Holdings Ltd (HKSE:02686) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

183 Queen’s Road Central, Unit 2506, 25th Floor, Cosco Tower, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

http://www.aagenergy.com

AAG Energy Holdings Ltd is an international energy company. It is engaged in the exploration, development, and production of coalbed methane (CBM) in the People's Republic of China. Its operating assets, the Panzhuang and Mabi concessions are located in the Southwestern part of the Qinshui Basin, which boasts CBM geological reserves of any basin in China. The Group conducts its business through two Production Sharing Contracts entered into with China United Coalbed Methane Corporation Ltd and China National Petroleum Corporation for Panzhuang and Mabi concessions respectively in Qinshui Basin, Shanxi Province of the PRC.

Executives

Zhong Guo Min Sheng Yin Hang Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si Wu Lu Mu Qi Fen Hang	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Ming Zaiyuan	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Si Chuan Li Ming Neng Yuan Kai Fa You Xian Ze Ren Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Xin Jiang Xin Tai Tian Ran Qi Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Xiang Gang Li Ming Kong Gu You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Wisdom Treasure Holdings Inc.	2101 Beneficial owner
Weng Ming	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zou Stephen Xiangdong	2101 Beneficial owner
Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas Co., Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

AAG Energy Holdings (HKSE:02686) Headlines

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