Beijing Airdoc Technology Co (HKSE:02251) Predictability Rank

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What is Beijing Airdoc Technology Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Beijing Airdoc Technology Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Beijing Airdoc Technology Co (HKSE:02251) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Beijing Airdoc Technology Co Ltd (HKSE:02251) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

West Third Ring North Road, Room 21, 4th Floor, Building 2, A2 Yard, Haidian District, Beijing, CHN

Website

https://www.airdoc.com

Beijing Airdoc Technology Co Ltd provides AI-empowered retina-based early detection, diagnosis and health risk assessment solutions in China. Leveraging retinal imaging, multimodal data analyses and AI deep learning algorithms, the company's solution differs from traditional chronic disease early detection and diagnosis, enabling non-invasive, accurate, fast, effective and scalable detection and diagnosis of chronic diseases in both medical institutions and consumer healthcare providers. The Company derives revenue principally from the provision of AI-based software solutions, sales of hardware devices and other services.

Executives

Mialkos Tomasz Jakub	2101 Beneficial owner
Zhang Dalei	2501 Other
Fosun Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Yadong Beichen Venture Investment Co., Ltd.	2101 Beneficial owner
Shanghai Ruikun Venture Capital Investment Co., Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shanghai Fosun Industrial Investment Co., Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shanghai Fosun High Technology (group) Co., Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Guo Guangchang	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Fosun International Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Fosun International Holdings Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chen Mingqiang	2501 Other
Gao Fei	2501 Other
Niagara Falls Holding Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
China Life Franklin Asset Management Co., Limited
China Life Insurance (group) Company

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