China Zheshang Bank Co (HKSE:02016) Predictability Rank

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What is China Zheshang Bank Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Zheshang Bank Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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China Zheshang Bank Co (HKSE:02016) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » China Zheshang Bank Co Ltd (HKSE:02016) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

601916:China

Address

No. 288, Qingchun Road, Xiacheng District, Zhejiang, Hangzhou, CHN, 310006

Website

https://www.czbank.com

China Zheshang Bank Co Ltd provides corporate and personal deposits, loans and advances, clearing and settlement services, treasury business, and other banking services as approved by the CBIRC. The company's business segments include Corporate banking; Retail banking; Treasury operations and other business. It generates maximum revenue from the Corporate banking segment. The corporate banking segment covers the provision of financial products and services to corporations, government agencies, and other institutions. The products and services include corporate loans and advances, trade financing, deposit products, and various types of corporate intermediary services, etc.

Executives

Xin Tai Ren Shou Bao Xian Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Citic Securities Company Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhe Neng Zi Ben Kong Gu You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Success Idea Global Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Nws Service Management Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Nws Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
New World Development Company Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ftlife Insurance Company Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Earning Star Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chow Tai Fook Capital Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chow Tai Fook (holding) Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cheng Yu Tung Family (holdings) Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cheng Yu Tung Family (holdings Ii) Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chow Tai Fook Enterprises Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zheneng Capital Investment (hong Kong) Limited	2101 Beneficial owner

China Zheshang Bank Co (HKSE:02016) Headlines

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