Towngas Smart Energy Co (HKSE:01083) Predictability Rank

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What is Towngas Smart Energy Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Towngas Smart Energy Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Towngas Smart Energy Co (HKSE:01083) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Towngas Smart Energy Co Ltd (HKSE:01083) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PGJ:Germany

Address

363 Java Road, North Point, 23rd Floor, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

https://www.towngaschina.com

Towngas Smart Energy Co Ltd is an investment holding company engaged in the sales of pipe gas and other types of energy, the construction of gas pipelines, the sale of gas appliances and related products, and other value-added services in the People's Republic of China. It has three operating segments; Sales of piped gas and energy including Sales of piped gas (mainly natural gas) and other types of energy, Gas connection include Construction of gas pipeline networks under gas connection contracts, and Extended business including Sales of gas-related household appliances and related products, and other related value-added services.

Executives

Henderson Development Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Planwise Properties Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Towngas Investment Company Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lee Ka Kit	2501 Other
Lee Shau Kee	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Faxson Investment Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Towngas International Company Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hong Kong & China Gas (china) Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
The Hong Kong And China Gas Company Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Rimmer (cayman) Limited	2301 Trustee
Riddick (cayman) Limited	2301 Trustee
Hopkins (cayman) Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Henderson Land Development Company Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tang Kok Yew	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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