Quam Plus International Financial (HKSE:00952) Predictability Rank

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What is Quam Plus International Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Quam Plus International Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Quam Plus International Financial (HKSE:00952) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Quam Plus International Financial Ltd (HKSE:00952) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

29 Queen’s Road Central, 18th and 19th Floor, China Building, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

https://www.quamplus.com

Quam Plus International Financial Ltd Formerly China Tonghai International Financial Ltd is an investment holding company. Its activities include corporate finance advisory and general advisory services; fund management, discretionary portfolio management and portfolio management advisory services; discretionary and non-discretionary dealing services for securities, futures and options, securities placing and underwriting services, margin financing, insurance broking and wealth management services; money lending services; financial media services; and investing and trading of various investment products. Its segments include corporate finance; asset management; brokerage; interest income; investments; and others segment.

Executives

Lam Kin Hing Kenneth	2101 Beneficial owner
Han Xiaosheng	2101 Beneficial owner
Quam Tonghai Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Lu Zhiqiang	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhong Guo Fan Hai Kong Gu Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhong Fan Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Fan Hai Kong Gu Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Fan Hai Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tong Hai Kong Gu You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Fan Hai Kong Gu Guo Ji Jin Rong Fa Zhan You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
So Kit Yee Anita	2501 Other
Tsui Chi Chiu	2501 Other
Haitong International Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Haitong International Investment Solutions Limited	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Haitong International Securities Group Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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