Apollo Future Mobility Group (HKSE:00860) Predictability Rank

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What is Apollo Future Mobility Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Apollo Future Mobility Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Apollo Future Mobility Group (HKSE:00860) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Apollo Future Mobility Group Ltd (HKSE:00860) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

U1R1:Germany

Address

189 Des Voeux Road Central, Sheung Wan, Units 2001-2002, 20th Floor, Li Po Chun Chambers, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

https://www.apollofmg.com

Apollo Future Mobility Group Ltd is an investment holding company. It operates in three segments. The Mobility technology solutions segment engages in designing, developing, manufacturing, and sales high-performance hypercars and provision of mobility technology solutions. Jewellery products and watches segment that derives majority revenue focus on retailing and wholesale of jewellery products and watches. The Money Lending segment provides loan finance. ,Majority revenue is derived from Jewellery products, watches and other commodities segment. Geographically Mainland China accounts for majority revenue.

Executives

Walong Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Hoi Wa Fan	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Atlantis Multi-strategy Capital Vcc (on Behalf Of Mpw Index Supreme Investment Fund)	2101 Beneficial owner
Atlantis Capital Group Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ho King Man Justin	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ruby Charm Investment Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Liu Yang	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shen Hui	2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl
Wang Lei	2202 Interest of your spouse
Cantrust (far East) Limited	2301 Trustee
Wm Motor Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Timeless Hero Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Freeman Schenk Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shen Hui	2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl
Sino-alliance International, Ltd	2101 Beneficial owner

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