What is Hallmark Financial Services Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Hallmark Financial Services Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Hallmark Financial Services (Hallmark Financial Services) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5420 Lyndon B. Johnson Freeway, Suite 1100, Two Lincoln Centre, Dallas, TX, USA, 75240
Hallmark Financial Services Inc is an insurance holding company, which is engaged in the sale of property/casualty insurance products to businesses and individuals. Its business involves marketing, distributing, underwriting, and servicing insurance products, as well as providing other insurance-related services. The company operates in segments such as Standard Commercial Segment, Specialty Commercial Segment, and Personal Segment. Geographically, it operates through the region of United States and derives a majority of its revenue from Specialty Commercial Segment, which includes Commercial Auto business unit, E&S Casualty business unit, E&S Property business unit, Professional Liability business unit, and Aerospace & Programs business unit.
Executives
| Doug Slape |
director |
5420 LYNDON B JOHNSON FREEWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75240 |
| Christopher James Kenney |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
5420 LYNDON B JOHNSON FREEWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75240-2345 |
| Naveen Anand |
officer: President & CEO |
777 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1000, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Scott T Berlin |
director |
14651 DALLAS PARKWAY STE 900, DALLAS TX 75254 |
| James H Graves |
director |
ERWIN GRAVES & ASSOCIATES, 2100 MCKINNEY AVE STE 900, DALLAS TX 75205 |
| Jeffrey R Passmore |
officer: CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER |
777 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1000, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Mark E Pape |
director |
12050 MEADOW LAKE DRIVE, ARGYLE TX 76226 |
| Kevin Kasitz |
officer: PRESIDENT OF SUBSIDIARY |
|
| Mark E Schwarz |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: C.E.O. & CHAIRMAN |
5420 LYNDON B. JOHNSON FREEWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75240 |
| Mark J Morrison |
officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER |
777 W MAIN STREET, SUITE 1000, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Ncm Services, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
5420 LYNDON B. JOHNSON FREEWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75240 |
| Schwarz 2012 Family Trust |
10 percent owner |
5420 LYNDON B. JOHNSON FREEWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75240 |
| Detroit Stoker Co |
other: See Explanation |
1510 E. FIRST ST., MONROE MI 48161 |
| Jim W Henderson |
director |
|
| Newcastle Special Opportunity Fund I, L.p. |
other: see attached explanation |
200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75201 |
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