Green Thumb Industries (Green Thumb Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is Green Thumb Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Green Thumb Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Green Thumb Industries (Green Thumb Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Green Thumb Industries Inc (OTCPK:GTBIF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

R9U2:Germany GTII:Canada

Address

325 West Huron Street, Suite 700, Chicago, IL, USA, 60654

Website

https://www.gtigrows.com

Green Thumb Industries is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, and produces and sells medicinal and recreational cannabis through wholesale and retail channels in the United States. It has a presence in 15 states and operates roughly 87 cannabis stores under the brand Rise. GTI is focusing its expansion on limited license states with large populations, and it does not currently export into the global medical market due to U.S. federal prohibition. It offers multiple products under a portfolio of cannabis consumer packaged goods brands, including &Shine, Beboe, Dogwalkers, Doctor Solomon's, Good Green, incredibles and RYTHM.

Executives

Richard Reisin	director	325 W. HURON STREET, SUITE 700, CHICAGO IL 60654
Hannah Scofield Buchan	director	660 MADISON AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10065
Ethan Nadelmann	director	325 WEST HURON STREET, SUITE 700, CHICAGO IL 60654
Dawn Wilson Barnes	director	325 WEST HURON STREET, SUITE 700, CHICAGO IL 60654
Bret Kravitz	officer: GENERAL COUNSEL AND SECRETARY	325 WEST HURON STREET, SUITE 700, CHICAGO IL 60654
Jeffrey H Goldman	director	325 W HURON STREET, SUITE 700, CHICAGO IL 60654
Richard A Drexler	director	200 S MICHIGAN AVE, SUITE 1300, CHICAGO IL 60604
Dorri Mcwhorter	director	6431 OAKTON STREET, C/O LIFEWAY FOODS, INC., MORTON GROVE IL 60053
Swati Mylavarapu	director	325 W. HURON ST., SUITE 700, CHICAGO IL 60654
Mathew Faulkner	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	325 W. HURON, SUITE 412, CHICAGO IL 60654
Beth Elaine Burk	officer: General Counsel	325 WEST HURON STREET, SUITE 412, CHICAGO IL 60654
Benjamin Kovler	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman & CEO	325 WEST HURON STREET, SUITE 412, CHICAGO IL 60654
Armen Yemenidjian	officer: President	325 WEST HURON STREET, SUITE 412, CHICAGO IL 60654
Jennifer Dooley	other: Chief Strategy Officer	325 WEST HURON STREET, SUITE 412, CHICAGO IL 60654
Westley Moore	director	325 WEST HURON STREET, SUITE 412, CHICAGO IL 60654