Republic First Bancorp (Republic First Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Republic First Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Republic First Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Republic First Bancorp (Republic First Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Republic First Bancorp Inc (OTCPK:FRBK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

50 South 16th Street, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 19102

Website

https://www.myrepublicbank.com

Republic First Bancorp Inc is an American state-chartered bank. It is principally a holding company for Republic First Bank. The bank offers a range of credit and depository banking products and services, such as consumer and commercial deposit accounts, interest-bearing demand accounts, savings accounts, secured and unsecured commercial loans, real estate loans, automobile loans, mortgages, and other products. It operates in the reportable segment of Community banking.

Executives

Michael W Harrington	officer: Chief Financial Officer	BRYN MAWR TRUST COMPANY, 801 LANCASTER AVENUE, BRYN MAWR PA 19010
Thomas X Geisel	director, officer: President and CEO	400 RELLA BOULEVARD, MONTEBELLO NY 10901
Benjamin Duster	director	200 E. 84ST, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10028
Peter B Bartholow	director	2100 MCKINNEY AVE, STE 900, DALLAS TX 75201
Michael Laplante	officer: SVP/Chief Accounting Officer	191 NORTH ELM AVENUE, NEWTOWN PA 18940
Harry Madonna	director	C/O REPUBLIC FIRST BANK, 1608 WALNUT ST., PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Jonathan D. Hill	officer: Interim CFO	C/O REPUBLIC FIRST BANCORP, INC., 50 S. 16TH STREET. SUITE 2400, PHILADELPHIA PA 19102
Jay M Neilon	officer: Chief Credit Officer	35 SKYLINE DRIVE, GLEN MILLS PA 19342
Andrew J Logue	officer: Chief Operations Officer	4 TUSCANY WAY, MT. LAUREL NJ 08054
Barry Spevak	director	1608 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 1000, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Flocco Theodore J Jr	director	11 BROOKWOOD ROAD, MT. LAUREL NJ 08054
Tracie Young	officer: Chief Risk Officer	50 S. 16TH STREET, SUITE 2400, PHILADELPHIA PA 19102
Harris Wildstein	director	1522 MEADOWBROOK RD, MEADOWBROOK PA 19046-1011
Frank A. Cavallaro	officer: Chief Financial Officer	132 YALE AVENUE, SOMERDALE NJ 08083
Hill Vernon W Ii	director	17000 HORIZON WAY, SUITE 100, MT. LAUREL NJ 08054