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F & M Bank (F & M Bank) Predictability Rank


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What is F & M Bank Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

F & M Bank Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

F & M Bank Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of F & M Bank's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

F & M Bank (F & M Bank) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » F & M Bank Corp (OTCPK:FMBM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CLST BAFN WAYN TCBC PPLL MSWV CTUY UWHR BSFO IROQ NSE:HDFCBANK SHSE:600036 NSE:ICICIBANK NSE:SBIN SAU:1120 XPAR:BNP ISX:BBCA MIC:SBER SGX:D05 MIL:ISP
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
205 South Main Street, P. O. Box 1111, Timberville, VA, USA, 22853
Website
https://www.fmbankva.com
F & M Bank Corp is a single-bank holding company. The Company operates two business segments, commercial banking, through F and M Bank, and mortgage banking, through F and M Mortgage. The commercial banking segment includes both commercial and consumer lending and provides customers with products such as commercial loans, real estate loans, other business financing, and consumer loans. In addition, this segment provides customers with several choice deposit products, including demand deposit accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit. The mortgage banking segment engages in the origination of residential mortgages for sale into the secondary market. Various other services are offered through TEB, FMFS, and VST.
Executives
Lisa F Campbell other: EVP/CFO 136 MILLSTONE ST., BRIDGEWATER VA 22812
John A Willingham director 925 MEADOW CT., WINCHESTER VA 22601
Kevin A. Russell other: Executive Vice President 4000 RUNNING BEAR DR., HARRISONBURG VA 22802
Larry A Caplinger officer: Sr Vice President PO BOX 274, TIMBERVILLE VA 22853
Aubrey M. Wilkerson other: Executive Vice President 961 MEADOW COURT, WINCHESTER VA 22601
Dean W Withers director 1685 BALD EAGLE CIRCLE, HARRISONBURG VA 22801
Christopher S. Runion director 5647 MOSSY CREEK ROAD, BRIDGEWATER VA 22812
Melody D. Emswiler other: Executive Vice President 19136 BOWERS LN, BROADWAY VA 22815
Stephanie E Shillingburg officer: Executive Vice President 1699 LAKEVIEW DRIVE, WOODSTOCK VA 22664
Mark Christopher Hanna officer: President/CEO 495 S. MASON ST., HARRISONBURG VA 22801
Daphyne S. Thomas director 1112 SHARPES DR., HARRISONBURG VA 22801
Hannah W. Hutman director 270 CAMPBELL ST., HARRISONBURG VA 22801
Ferris Garth Knight other: EVP, Chief Banking Officer 465 FREDERICK RD., ROCKINGHAM VA 22801
Paul E. Eberly other: Executive Vice President 4101 LEVI LN, ROCKINGHAM VA 22802
Edward Ray Burkholder director 1760 CHURCHVILLE AVENUE, STAUNTON VA 24401