First Community (First Community) Predictability Rank

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What is First Community Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Community Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Community (First Community) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First Community Corp (NAS:FCCO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5455 Sunset Boulevard, Lexington, SC, USA, 29072

Website

https://www.firstcommunitysc.com

First Community Corp is a bank holding company, which provides commercial banking services. It is engaged in the general commercial and retail banking business characterized by personalized service and local decision making, emphasizing the banking needs of small to medium-sized businesses, professional concerns, and individuals. It operates through following segments: Commercial and Retail Banking; Mortgage Banking; Investment Advisory and Non-Deposit; and Corporate. It offers checking, savings, money market, individual retirement, and certificates of deposit accounts. Its lending lines include consumer loans, real estate loans, home improvement loans, home loans, flex loans, construction loans, agricultural loans, and others.

Executives

E. Leland Reynolds	director	5455 SUNSET BLVD, LEXINGTON SC 29072
Michael C Crapps	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O FIRST COMMUNITY CORP, P O BOX 64, LEXINGTON SC 29071
Jan H Hollar	director	300 E. BROAD ST., STATESVILLE NC 28677
Edward J. Tarver	director	C/O FIRST COMMUNITY CORPORATION, 5455 SUNSET BLVD, LEXINGTON SC 29072
Mickey Layden	director	5455 SUNSET BLVD., LEXINGTON SC 29072
Ray E Jones	director	5455 SUNSET BLVD., LEXINGTON SC 29072
Jane S Sosebee	director	C/O PALMETTO BANCSHARES, INC., 306 EAST NORTH STREET, GREENVILLE SC 29601
Tanya A Butts	officer: Executive Vice Pres	104 S. MAIN STREET, GREENVILLE SC 29601
Jack W. Walker	officer: EVP and Chief Credit Officer	C/O FIRST COMMUNITY CORPORATION, 5455 SUNSET BLVD, LEXINGTON SC 29072
Donald Shawn Jordan	officer: EVP and CFO	C/O FIRST COMMUNITY CORPORATION, 5455 SUNSET BLVD, LEXINGTON SC 29072
Thomas Carlton Brown	director	C/O FIRST COMMUNITY CORP, P O BOX 64, LEXINGTON SC 29071
David K Proctor	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O FIRST COMMUNITY CORP, P O BOX 64, LEXINGTON SC 29071
Joseph G Sawyer	officer: Senior Vice President & CFO	C/O FIRST COMMUNITY CORP, P O BOX 64, LEXINGTON SC 29071
Richard K Bogan	director	C/O FIRST COMMUNITY CORP, P O BOX 64, LEXINGTON SC 29071
Anita B Easter	director	C/O FIRST COMMUNITY CORP, P O BOX 64, LEXINGTON SC 29071