Erasca (Erasca) Predictability Rank

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What is Erasca Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Erasca Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Erasca (Erasca) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Erasca Inc (NAS:ERAS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3115 Merryfield Row, Suite 300, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121

Website

https://www.erasca.com

Erasca Inc is a clinical-stage precision oncology company singularly focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing therapies for patients with RAS/MAPK pathway-driven cancers. The company's pipeline includes; Naporafenib, a pan-RAF inhibitor with first-in-class potential in NRASm melanoma, RAS Q61X tissue agnostic solid tumors, and other RAS/MAPK pathway-driven tumors, and ERAS-007 (oral ERK1/2 inhibitor) and ERAS-601 (oral SHP2 inhibitor), which target downstream and upstream nodes, respectively, of the RAS/MAPK pathway.

Executives

Jonathan E Lim	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	11588 SORRENTO VALLEY ROAD, SUITE 17, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Start Valerie Denise Harding	director	C/O IGNYTA, INC., 11111 FLINTKOTE AVE., SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Alexander W. Casdin	director	C/O IGNYTA, INC., 11095 FLINTKOTE AVENUE, SUITE D, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Shannon Morris	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ERASCA, INC., 3115 MERRYFIELD ROW, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
James Arthur Bristol	director	C/O DECIPHERA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 200 SMITH STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Cormorant Asset Management, Lp	director	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Bihua Chen	director	C/O CORMORANT ASSET MANAGEMENT, LP, 200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Cormorant Global Healthcare Master Fund, Lp	director	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Cormorant Private Healthcare Fund Ii, Lp	director	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Jean I Liu	director	21823 30TH DRIVE SE, BOTHELL WA 98021
Pratik S Multani	director	C/O FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3535 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Julie Hambleton	director	C/O FIVE PRIME THERAPEUTICS, INC., TWO CORPORATE DRIVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Ebun Garner	officer: General Counsel	C/O ALPHATEC HOLDINGS, INC., 2051 PALOMAR AIRPORT ROAD, CARLSBAD CA 92011
Lim Conyee T.	10 percent owner	C/O ERASCA, INC., 10835 ROAD TO THE CURE #140, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Arch Venture Fund X, L.p.	10 percent owner	8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631