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Southern Connecticut Bancorp (Southern Connecticut Bancorp) Predictability Rank


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What is Southern Connecticut Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Southern Connecticut Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Southern Connecticut Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Southern Connecticut Bancorp (Southern Connecticut Bancorp) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
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Address
Website
Southern Connecticut Bancorp, Inc., a Connecticut corporation was incorporated on November 8, 2000. It is a bank holding company The Company owns 100% of the capital stock of The Bank of Southern Connecticut (the 'Bank'), a Connecticut-chartered bank. The Bank operates branches at four locations, including downtown New Haven, the Amity/Westville section of New Haven, Branford and North Haven. It focuses on serving the banking needs of small to medium-sized businesses, professionals and professional corporations, and their owners and employees in the Greater New Haven Market. The Bank offers loans to businesses and individuals in its service area, including commercial and business loans, industrial loans, personal loans, commercial and home mortgage loans, home equity loans and automobile loans. The Bank has attracted a base of core deposits, including interest bearing and non-interest bearing checking accounts, money market accounts, savings accounts, sweep accounts, NOW accounts, repurchase agreements, and a variety of certificates of deposits and IRA accounts. The primary sources of deposits have been and are expected to continue to be small to medium-sized businesses, professionals (lawyers, doctors, accountants, etc.) and professional corporations, and their owners and employees. The Bank obtains these deposits through personal solicitation by its officers and directors, outside programs and advertisements published and/or broadcasted in the local media. It offers internet-banking services to its customers, including commercial cash management services and personal banking services. The Bank offers remote deposit capture, which offers check deposit capabilities for customers from their place of business. It also offers drive-in teller services, automated teller services, wire transfer, lock box and safe deposit services. The Bank provides a range of other services and products, including cashier's checks, money orders, travelers' checks, bank-by-mail, direct deposit and U.S. Savings Bonds. It is associated with a shared network of automated teller machines that its customers are able to use throughout Connecticut and other regions. The Company operates in a heavily regulated industry and is subject to increasing regulatory review and scrutiny from the Federal Reserve Board, the Connecticut Banking Commissioner, and the FDIC. There are numerous banks and other financial institutions serving the Greater New Haven Market posing significant competition to attract deposits and loans. The Banks and bank holding companies are extensively regulated under both federal and state law.

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