Century Next Financial (Century Next Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Century Next Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Century Next Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Century Next Financial (Century Next Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Century Next Financial Corp (OTCPK:CTUY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

505 North Vienna Street, Ruston, LA, USA, 71270

Website

https://www.cnext.bank

Century Next Financial Corp is the United States-based holding company for Bank of Ruston. The Bank is a full-service bank that emphasizes professional and personal banking services directed to small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individuals. The Bank provides a full range of banking services including its business of real estate lending to residential and commercial customers.

Executives

William D Hogan	director, officer: EVP Business Development	CENTURY NEXT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 505 NORTH VIENNA STREET, RUSTON LA 71270
Thomas W Rogers	director	CENTURY NEXT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 505 NORTH VIENNA STREET, RUSTON LA 71270
David Layne Weeks	officer: SVP and Chief Credit Officer*	BANK OF RUSTON, 505 N. VIENNA STREET, RUSTON LA 71270
Mark Anthony Taylor	officer: Chief Financial Officer	CENTURY NEXT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 505 NORTH VIENNA STREET, RUSTON LA 71270
Oneal Dan E Iii	director	CENTURY NEXT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 505 NORTH VIENNA STREET, RUSTON LA 71270
Benjamin L Denny	director, officer: President and CEO	CENTURY NEXT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 505 NORTH VIENNA STREET, RUSTON LA 71270
Warren L Post	officer: (1) VP and Mortgage Lender	CENTURY NEXT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 505 NORTH VIENNA STREET, RUSTON LA 71270
Lorie R Hamlin	officer: (1) VP and Operations Manager	CENTURY NEXT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 505 NORTH VIENNA STREET, RUSTON LA 71270
James H Hall	officer: (1) SVP & Chief Credit Officer	CENTURY NEXT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 505 NORTH VIENNA STREET, RUSTON LA 71270
Scott R Thompson	director	CENTURY NEXT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 505 NORTH VIENNA STREET, RUSTON LA 71270
Daniel D Reneau	director	CENTURY NEXT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 505 NORTH VIENNA STREET, RUSTON LA 71270
Barbara L Ford	officer: (1) SVP and IT Officer	CENTURY NEXT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 505 NORTH VIENNA STREET, RUSTON LA 71270
G Randall Allison	officer: (1) Vice President and CFO	CENTURY NEXT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 505 NORTH VIENNA STREET, RUSTON LA 71270
Neal Walpole	director	CENTURY NEXT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 505 NORTH VIENNA STREET, RUSTON LA 71270
J Brandon Ewing	director	CENTURY NEXT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 505 NORTH VIENNA STREET, RUSTON LA 71270