Criteo (Criteo) Predictability Rank

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What is Criteo Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Criteo Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Criteo (Criteo) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Criteo SA (NAS:CRTO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CI5A:Germany

Address

32 Rue Blanche, Paris, FRA, 75009

Website

https://www.criteo.com

Headquartered in Paris, Criteo is one of the leading ad-tech companies in the digital advertising market. Its technology, allows retailer advertisers to launch multichannel and cross-device marketing campaigns in real time. With real-time return on investment analysis of the ads, the firm's clients can adjust their marketing strategies dynamically. The firm also provides technology allowing retailers to effectively manage their ad inventories and improve yield optimization.

Executives

Megan Clarken	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CRITEO LEGAL DEPT., 387 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Ryan Damon	other: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary	C/O CRITEO, 32 RUE BLANCHE, PARIS I0 75009
Sarah Js Glickman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	60 BINNEY STREET, C/O BLUEBIRD BIO, INC., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Van Der Kooi Frederik	director	C/O CRITEO LEGAL DEPT., 387 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Marie Lalleman	director	C/O CRITEO, 32 RUE BLANCHE, PARIS I0 75009
Nathalie Balla	director	C/O CRITEO, 32 RUE BLANCHE, PARIS I0 75009
Rachel Picard	director	C/O CRITEO, 32 RUE BLANCHE, PARIS I0 75009
James Warner	director	135 WEST 18TH STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10011
Edmond Mesrobian	director	10 S ALMADEN BLVD, 16TH FLOOR, SAN JOSE CA 95113
Jean-baptiste Rudelle	director, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O CRITEO S.A., 32 RUE BLANCHE, PARIS I0 75009
David J Anderson	officer: Interim CFO	C/O HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC, 101 COLUMBIA ROAD, MORRISTOWN NJ 09762
Dan Teodosiu	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O CRITEO, 32 RUE BLANCHE, PARIS I0 75009
Mary Spilman	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O CRITEO LEGAL DEPT., 387 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Eric Eichmann	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CRITEO LEGAL DEPT., 387 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Pesquidoux Hubert De	director	TEKELEC, 5200 PARAMOUNT PARKWAY, MORRISVILLE NC 27560