Coupa Software (Coupa Software) Predictability Rank

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What is Coupa Software Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Coupa Software Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Coupa Software (Coupa Software) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Coupa Software Inc (NAS:COUP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1855 S. Grant Street, San Mateo, CA, USA, 94402

Website

https://www.coupa.com

Coupa Software is a cloud-based provider of business spending management solutions. Its BSM platform provides visibility into all spending, allowing companies to gain control over their spending, optimize their supplier network and supply chains, and manage liquidity. The platform's transactional core consists of procurement, invoicing, expense management, and payment solutions, while supporting modules ranging from strategic sourcing solutions to supply chain design and planning solutions round out the comprehensive spending management ecosystem.

Executives

Scott Thompson	director	C/O YAHOO! INC., 701 FIRST AVENUE, MS 1GA-5, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Veenendaal Frank Van	director	C/O SALESFORCE.COM, 1 MARKET STREET, SUITE 300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Roger S Siboni	director	1900 SOUTH NORFOLK STREET, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Kanika Soni	director	C/O TRIPADVISOR INC., 400 1ST AVENUE, NEEDHAM MA 02494
Henry Tayloe Stansbury	director	C/O COUPA SOFTWARE INC., 1855 S. GRANT STREET, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Robert Bernshteyn	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SUCCESSFACTORS, INC., 1500 FASHION, ISLAND BLVD., SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94404
Anthony D Tiscornia	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O COUPA SOFTWARE INCORPORATED, 1855 S. GRANT STREET, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Michelle Brennan	director	1855 S. GRANT STREET, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Maurizio Baratta	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	GUNDERSON DETTMER, 1855 SOUTH GRANT STREET, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Robert Glenn	officer: EVP of Global Sales	1855 S. GRANT STREET, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Mark Riggs	officer: Chief Customer Officer	1855 S. GRANT STREET, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Todd R Ford	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3457 BRYANT STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94306
Campbell Leslie C.g.	director	C/O COUPA SOFTWARE INC., 1855 S. GRANT STREET, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Steven M Winter	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O COUPA SOFTWARE INC., 1855 S. GRANT STREET, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Ravi Thakur	officer: Senior Vice Pres., Services	C/O COUPA SOFTWARE INC., 1855 S. GRANT STREET, SAN MATEO CA 94402