ChoiceOne Financial Services (ChoiceOne Financial Services) Predictability Rank

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What is ChoiceOne Financial Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ChoiceOne Financial Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

ChoiceOne Financial Services Predictability Rank Related Terms

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ChoiceOne Financial Services (ChoiceOne Financial Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc (NAS:COFS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

109 East Division Street, Sparta, MI, USA, 49345

Website

https://www.choiceone.com

ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc is a full-service banking institution. It is engaged in the business of providing personal and business banking solutions, borrowing solutions, and treasury notes and bonds services. The bank's product and services portfolio consist of time, savings and demand deposits, safe deposit services, automated transaction machine services, commercial and consumer loans, commercial lending to business, industry, agricultural, construction, inventory, and real estate categories. Its primary market area is Kent, Muskegon, Newaygo, and Ottawa counties in western Michigan, and Lapeer, Macomb, and St. Clair counties in southeastern Michigan in the communities where the Bank's respective offices are located.

Executives

Greg L. Armock	director	109 EAST DIVISION STREET, SPARTA MI 49345
Curt E Coulter	director	109 EAST DIVISION STREET, SPARTA MI 49345
Burke Michael J Jr	director, officer: President	109 EAST DIVISION STREET, SPARTA MI 49345
Essex Bruce John Jr	director	109 EAST DIVISION STREET, SPARTA MI 49345
Gregory A Mcconnell	director	109 EAST DIVISION STREET, SPARTA MI 49345
Adom Greenland	officer: S.V.P. - ChoiceOne Bank (Sub.)	109 EAST DIVISION STREET, SPARTA MI 49345
Bradley F. Mcginnis	director	109 EAST DIVISION STREET, SPARTA MI 49345
Jack Hendon	director	109 EAST DIVISION STREET, SPARTA MI 49345
Eric E Burrough	director	109 EAST DIVISION STREET, SPARTA MI 49345
Michelle M Wendling	director	109 EAST DIVISION STREET, SPARTA MI 49345
David J Churchill	director	109 EAST DIVISION STREET, SPARTA MI 49345
Kelly Potes	officer: V.P. - ChoiceOne Insur. (Sub.)	109 EAST DIVISION STREET, SPARTA MI 49345
Lee A Braford	officer: VP-ChoiceOne Bank (Subsidiary)	109 EAST DIVISION STREET, SPARTA MI 49345
Peter Batistoni	officer: S.V.P. - ChoiceOne Bank (Sub.)	109 EAST DIVISION STREET, SPARTA MI 49345
Robert M Jamula	officer: S.V.P. - ChoiceOne Bank (Sub)	109 EAST DIVISION STREET, SPARTA MI 49345