Colony Bankcorp (Colony Bankcorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Colony Bankcorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Colony Bankcorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Colony Bankcorp (Colony Bankcorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Colony Bankcorp Inc (NAS:CBAN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

115 South Grant Street, Fitzgerald, GA, USA, 31750

Website

http://www.colonybank.com

Colony Bankcorp Inc is a bank holding company. The bank provides a broad range of banking services to its retail and commercial customers. Its product line includes loans to small and medium-sized businesses, residential and commercial construction and land development loans, commercial real estate loans, agri-business and production loans, residential mortgage loans, consumer loans, and a variety of demand, savings, and time deposit products. The company's segments include banking, mortgage banking, and small business specialty lending division. It generates maximum revenue from the banking segment.

Executives

Harold Wyatt	director	115 S GRANT STREET, P. O. BOX 989, FITZGERALD GA 31750
Matthew D. Reed	director	115 S. GRANT ST., P.O. BOX 989, FITZGERALD GA 31750
Lee Bagwell	officer: Executive VP	1000 LEE AVENUE, DOUGLAS GA 31533
Bateman Leonard H Jr	officer: EVP & Chief Credit Officer	101 CALUMET CENTER ROAD, LAGRANGE GA 30241
Audrey Hollingsworth	director	115 S GRANT STREET, P O BOX 989, FITZGERALD GA 31750
Scott Lowell Downing	director	238 NEWCOMER TRAIL, FITZGERALD GA 31750
Kimberly C. Dockery	officer: Exec. Chief Admin Officer	P.O. BOX 920, LEESBURG GA 31763
T Heath Fountain	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O COLONY BANKCORP, INC., 115 S. GRANT ST. P.O. BOX 989, FITZGERALD GA 31750
Copeland R Dallis Jr	officer: President	115 S GRANT STREET, P O BOX 989, FITZGERALD GA 31750
Hoyle M. Edward Jr.	officer: Chief Banking Officer, EVP	115 SOUTH GRANT STREET, FITZGERALD GA 31750
David Andrew Borrmann	officer: EVP	P.O. BOX 17465, GREENVILLE SC 29606
Meagan M. Mowry	director	115 S GRANT ST., P.O. BOX 989, FITZGERALD GA 31750
Brian D Schmitt	director, other: Executive Vice Chairman	115 S GRANT STREET, FITZGERALD GA 31750
M Frederick Dwozan	director	718 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, EASTMAN GA 31023-6736
Loomis Edward Percy Jr	director	115 S GRANT STREET, FITZGERALD GA 31750