Capricor Therapeutics (Capricor Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Capricor Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Capricor Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Capricor Therapeutics (Capricor Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Capricor Therapeutics Inc (NAS:CAPR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

4LN2:Germany

Address

10865 Road to the Cure, Suite 150, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121

Website

https://www.capricor.com

Capricor Therapeutics Inc is a United States-based biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of first-in-class biological therapies for the treatment of diseases, with a focus on Duchenne muscular dystrophy and other medical conditions. The company's development stage product pipeline includes CAP-1002, for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Program and COVID-19 Program; CDC-Exosomes (CAP-2003); and Exosome-mRNA vaccine.

Executives

David B Musket	director	C/O CONOR MEDSYSTEMS, INC., 1003 HAMILTON COURT, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Collier Earl M Jr	director	C/O TESARO, INC., 1000 WINTER STREET, SUITE 3300, WALTHAM MA 02451
Paul Gisbert Auwaerter	director	C/O CAPRICOR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 10865 ROAD TO THE CURE, SUITE 150, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Mike Kelliher	director	C/O CAPRICOR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 10865 ROAD TO THE CURE, SUITE 150, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Philip J Gotwals	director	C/O CAPRICOR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 10865 ROAD TO THE CURE, SUITE 150, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Xavier Avat	officer: CHIEF BUSINESS OFFICER	10865 ROAD TO THE CURE, SUITE 150, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Karimah Es Sabar	director	C/O 8840 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, 2ND FLOOR, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90211
Linda Marban	director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	C/O CAPRICOR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 8840 WILSHIRE BLVD., 2ND FLOOR, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90211
Dunbar George W Jr	director	C/O COMPETITIVE TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 777 COMMERCE DRIVE, SUITE 100, FAIRFIELD CT 06825
Karen Krasney	officer: EVP, GENERAL COUNSEL	C/O CAPRICOR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 8840 WILSHIRE BLVD., 2ND FLOOR, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90211
Anthony Bergmann	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O CAPRICOR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 8840 WILSHIRE BLVD., 2ND FLOOR, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90211
Louis Manzo	director	C/O CAPRICOR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 8840 WILSHIRE BLVD., 2ND FLOOR, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90211
Cedars Sinai Medical Center	10 percent owner	8700 BEVERLY BLVD, LOS ANGELES CA 90048-1865
St. John Edward A.	10 percent owner	2560 LORD BALTIMORE DRIVE, BALTIMORE MD 21244
Leland Gershell	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TONIX PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDING CORP, 509 MADISON AVE., STE 306, NEW YORK NY 10022