Beyond Meat (Beyond Meat) Predictability Rank

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What is Beyond Meat Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Beyond Meat Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Beyond Meat (Beyond Meat) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Beyond Meat Inc (NAS:BYND) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BYND:Mexico 1BYND:Italy 0Q3:Germany 0Q3:Germany 0Q3:Germany 0Q3:Germany B2YN34:Brazil BYND:Austria

Address

119 Standard Street, El Segundo, CA, USA, 90245

Website

https://www.beyondmeat.com

Beyond Meat Inc is a provider of plant-based meats, such as burgers, sausage, ground beef, and chicken. Unlike other vegetarian products, Beyond Meat seeks to replicate the look, cook, and taste of meat targeted to omnivores and vegetarians alike and is sold in the meat case. The products are widely available across the U.S. and Canada and in 83 additional countries as well. International revenue represented 31% of 2021 sales. The firm's products are available in retail stores and the food service channel. In 2019, before the pandemic struck, sales were evenly split between these two channels, although the mix stood at 70% retail/30% food service in 2021. We think the recovery from the crisis and new deals with McDonald's and Yum Brands will return food-service sales to 50% in time.

Executives

Chad M Peffer	officer: Interim Chief Growth Officer	C/O BEYOND MEAT, INC., 888 N. DOUGLAS STREET, SUITE 100, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
C James Koch	director	C/O THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, ONE DESIGN CENTER PLACE, SUITE 850, BOSTON MA 02210
Akerho Oghoghomeh	officer: See Remarks	C/O BEYOND MEAT, INC., 119 STANDARD STREET, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Dariush Ajami	officer: Chief Innovation Officer	C/O BEYOND MEAT, INC., 1325 E. EL SEGUNDO BLVD., EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Lubi Kutua	officer: CFO, Treasurer	C/O BEYOND MEAT, INC., 119 STANDARD STREET, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Beth Moskowitz	officer: Chief Creative Officer	C/O BEYOND MEAT, INC., 119 STANDARD STREET, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Sharman Robert M Jr	officer: See Remarks	C/O BEYOND MEAT, INC., 119 STANDARD STREET, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Henry Dieu	officer: See Remarks.	C/O BEYOND MEAT, INC., 119 STANDARD STREET, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Brad Hiranaga	officer: SEE REMARKS	C/O BEYOND MEAT, INC., 119 STANDARD STREET, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Jay Colleen	director	C/O THE COOPER COMPANIES, INC., 6140 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, SUITE 590, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Diane Carhart	director	C/O BEYOND MEAT, INC., 1325 E. EL SEGUNDO BLVD., EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Teri L Witteman	officer: General Counsel, Secretary	20333 S. NORMANDIE AVE, TORRANCE CA 90502
George Bernard Adcock	officer: Chief Suppy Chain Officer	C/O BEYOND MEAT, INC., 119 STANDARD ST., EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Douglas Wayne Ramsey	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O BEYOND MEAT, INC., 119 STANDARD STREET, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Jonathan P Nelson	officer: Interim COO	C/O BEYOND MEAT, INC., 119 STANDARD STREET, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245