First Busey (First Busey) Predictability Rank

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What is First Busey Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Busey Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Busey (First Busey) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First Busey Corp (NAS:BUSE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

100 W. University Avenue, Champaign, IL, USA, 61820

Website

https://www.busey.com

First Busey Corporation is a financial holding company, whose subsidiaries provides retail and commercial banking services, remittance processing, and offers financial products and services with banking centers in Illinois, Missouri, Florida, and Indiana. The company's operations are managed through three operating segments consisting of Banking, FirsTech, and Wealth Management. The banking segment generates a vast majority of its revenue.

Executives

Michael David Cassens	director	100 WEST UNIVERSITY AVE., CHAMPAIGN IL 61820
Stanley J Bradshaw	director	900 ROOSEVELT PARKWAY, CHESTERFIELD MO 63017
Scott A. Phillips	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	100 W. UNIVERSITY AVENUE, CHAMPAIGN IL 61820
Monica L Bowe	officer: EVP Chief Risk Officer	100 WEST UNIVERSITY AVE., CHAMPAIGN IL 61820
Jeffrey David Jones	officer: EVP & CFO	100 WEST UNIVERSITY AVENUE, CHAMPAIGN IL 61820
John Joseph Powers	officer: EVP & General Counsel	100 WEST UNIVERSITY AVENUE, CHAMPAIGN IL 61820
Van A Dukeman	director, officer: President & CEO	100 W. UNIVERSITY AVE, CHAMPAIGN IL 61820
Cassandra R Sanford	director	100 W. UNIVERSITY AVENUE, CHAMPAIGN IL 61820
Stephen V King	director	FIRST BUSEY CORPORATION, 100 WEST UNIVERSITY AVENUE, CHAMPAIGN IL 61820
Amy L Randolph	officer: Chief of Staff	FIRST BUSEY CORPORATION, 100 WEST UNIVERSITY AVENUE, CHAMPAIGN IL 61820
George Barr	director	2801 BLACK ROAD, JOLIET IL 60435
Karen M Jensen	director	100 WEST UNIVERSITY AVE., CHAMPAIGN IL 61820
Samuel P Banks	director	201 W MAIN ST, URBANA IL 61801
Frederic L Kenney	director	100 W. UNIVERSITY AVE, CHAMPAIGN IL 61820
Robin N Elliott	officer: President/CEO Busey Bank	FIRST BUSEY CORPORATION, 100 WEST UNIVERSITY AVENUE, CHAMPAIGN IL 61820