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Bravo Multinational (Bravo Multinational) Predictability Rank


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What is Bravo Multinational Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bravo Multinational Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Bravo Multinational Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Bravo Multinational (Bravo Multinational) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Bravo Multinational Inc (OTCPK:BRVO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ELYS SPOZF LTRY SBET GMBL EBET GMER DUB:FLTR OSTO:EVO ASX:ALL DKNG CHDN LSE:ENT LNW ASX:TLC XPAR:FDJ ATH:OPAP IGT MIL:LTMC TSE:6417
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2020 General Booth Boulevard, Unit 230, Virginia Beach, VA, USA, 23454
Website
http://www.bravomultinational.com
Bravo Multinational Inc is engaged in the business of leasing gaming equipment. It offers slot machines; blackjack and miscellaneous game tables, related furniture and equipment; roulette table and bingo equipment. Its equipment also includes casino chips, bill acceptors, coin counter and related equipment, and miscellaneous office equipment, such as chairs and tables. Geographically the operations function through the region of the United States.
Executives
Merle Ferguson director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO/Chairman 2020 GENERAL BOOTH BLVD., SUITE 230, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23454
Kayla Slick director, officer: COO 4413 TRIPOLI DRIVE, LAFAYETTE IN 47909
Grant Cramer director, officer: CEO 10311 CLUSTERBERRY CT, LOS ANGELES CA 90077
Hagan Frank J Jr. director, officer: President 7941 SELMA AVENUE, #226, LOS ANGELES CA 90046
Josh Vance director 312 E SOUTH TEMPLE, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Diversified Consultants, Llc 10 percent owner 8068 W. SAHARA AVE, SUITE C, LAS VEGAS NV 89117
Susan Donohue 10 percent owner, other: Company Consultant 19001 S. RICHFIELD AVE, #102, GREEN VALLEY AZ 85614
Julios Kosta 10 percent owner 30 WEST BEAVER CREEK, SUITE 105, RICHMOND HILL A6 L1V 7G8
Douglas Barry Brooks director, officer: Vice-president 590 YORK ROAD, UNIT #3, NIAGARA ON THE LAKE A6 L0S 1J0
Richard Kaiser Kaiser officer: Secretary 3419 VIRGINIA BEACH BLVD, UNIT 252, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23452
Paul Parliament director P.O.B 299, ST. DAVIDS A6 L0S 1P0
Prosser John G Ii director 691 NORTH SQUIRREL ROAD, SUITE 105, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Martin Wolfe director 1807-7 TOWNSGATE DRIVE, THORNHILL A6 L4J7Z9
Lewis J Georges director 101 WEST MAIN STREET, SUITE 400, NORFOLK VA 23510
Denise Quilliam director, 10 percent owner, officer: SECRETARY 7270 WOODBINE AVE, SUITE 200 L3R 4B9, MARKHAM ONTARIO