Body Central (Body Central) Predictability Rank

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What is Body Central Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Body Central Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Body Central (Body Central) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Body Central Corp (OTCPK:BODY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.bodycentral.com

Body Central Corp is a multi-channel specialty retailer offering apparel and accessories. The company operates specialty apparel stores under the Body Central and Body Shop banners as well as a direct business comprised Boy central catalog and e-commerce website. Its products include tops, dresses, bottoms, jewelry, lingerie, accessories, and shoes. The company markets and sells its products under Bodycentral, Sexy stretch and Lipstick lingerie brand labels.

Executives

683 Capital Partners, Lp	10 percent owner	C/O 683 CAPITAL GP, LLC, 1700 BROADWAY, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
683 Capital Management, Llc	10 percent owner	1700 BROADWAY, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
Ari Zweiman	director	C/O 683 CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 1700 BROADWAY, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
Solas Capital Management, Llc	10 percent owner	1063 POST ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820
Tucker Golden Frederick	10 percent owner	C/O SOLAS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 1063 POST ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820
Donna R Ecton	director	C/O BODY CENTRAL CORP., 6225 POWERS AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32217
Thomas W Stoltz	officer: COO & CFO	611 BAINBRIDGE STREET, SUITE 100, C/O CARLOTZ, INC., RICHMOND VA 23224
John K Haley	director	C/O GENERAL GROWTH PROPERTIES, INC. 110 NORTH WACKER DRIVE CHICAGO IL 60606
Allen Weinstein	other: Former President and CEO	C/O BODY CENTRAL CORP., 6225 POWERS AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32217
Martin P Doolan	director	150 THORN HILL DR., WARRENDALE PA 15095
Richard J Williams	10 percent owner	125 HIGH STREET, 26TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110