The Beachbody Co (The Beachbody Co) Predictability Rank

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What is The Beachbody Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Beachbody Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Beachbody Co (The Beachbody Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » The Beachbody Co Inc (NYSE:BODI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

400 Continental Boulevard, Suite 400, El Segundo, CA, USA, 90245

Website

https://www.thebeachbodycompany.com

The Beachbody Co Inc is a health and wellness platform providing fitness, nutrition and stress-reducing programs to customers. The product offerings of the company include Digital Subscriptions, Nutritional Products, and Connected Fitness Products. It earns the majority of its revenue from the United States. The company operates and manages its business in two operating segments, Beachbody and Other.

Executives

Jonathan Congdon	officer: SEE REMARKS	C/O FOREST ROAD ACQUISITION CORP., 1177 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Mark R Goldston	director, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O UNITED ONLINE, 2555 TOWNSGATE ROAD, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Ann Marie Lundy	director	C/O THE BEACHBODY COMPANY, INC., 400 CONTINENTAL BLVD., SUITE 400, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Carl Daikeler	director, 10 percent owner, officer: SEE REMARKS	C/O FOREST ROAD ACQUISITION CORP., 1177 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Kathy P Vrabeck	officer: CHIEF STRATEGY OFFICER	625 WESTPORT PARKWAY, GRAPEVINE TX 76051
Marc Suidan	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O THE BEACHBODY COMPANY, INC., 400 CONTINENTAL BLVD., SUITE 400, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Michael Heller	director	CIRA CENTRE, 2929 ARCH STREET, SUITE 675, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104-2867
Kristin E. Frank	director	C/O GAIAM, INC., 833 WEST SOUTH BOULDER ROAD, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Blake Timothy Bilstad	officer: SEE REMARKS	C/O THE BEACHBODY COMPANY, INC., 3301 EXPOSITION BLVD., SANTA MONICA CA 90404
John S. Salter	director	ONE LOMBARD STREET, SUITE 300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Susan Collyns	officer: PRESIDENT & CFO	6053 W CENTURY BLVD STE 1100, C/O CALIFORNIA PIZZA KITCHEN INC, LOS ANGLES CA 90045-6430
Rpiii Corp Spv Management Llc	10 percent owner	65 EAST 55TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Raine Management Llc	10 percent owner	65 EAST 55TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Rpiii Corp Aggregator Lp	10 percent owner	ATTN: LEGAL DEPT., 65 EAST 55TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Rpiii Rainsanity Lp	10 percent owner	ATTN: LEGAL DEPT., 65 EAST 55TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022